Re: CFR on civil war in Iraq
Speaking of which…
At 1:34 PM -0500 2/28/06, Communications@cfr.org wrote:
IN THE MARCH/APRIL 2006 ISSUE OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS:
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85201/stephen-biddle/seeing-baghdad-thinking-saigon.htmlIs Iraq Heading For Civil War?
Last week, insurgents in Iraq redoubled their efforts to stoke a civil war between the country’s Shiite and Sunni populations. In doing so, the insurgents have demonstrated that they understand the situation in Iraq better than the White House. For months, the Bush administration has tried to recruit an Iraqi army that would eventually replace U.S. forces, like the Nixon administration’s policy of “Vietnamization.” But such a strategy is more likely to fuel the conflict than to douse it, argues http://www.cfr.org/bios/2603/stephen_biddle.htmlStephen Biddle, now Senior Fellow in Defense Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Turning over the responsibility for internal security to an Iraqi army mainly comprised of ethnically homogeneous units is a recipe for disaster-and removing the United States from the scene means eliminating the player most loyal to the idea of a stable, heterogeneous Iraq.
“The problem with recycling the Vietnam playbook in Iraq is that the strategies devised to win a people’s war are either useless or counterproductive in a communal one. Winning hearts and minds, for example, is crucial to defeating a people’s rebellion that promises good governance, but in a communal civil war such as that in Iraq, it is a lost cause.”
“The biggest problem with treating Iraq like Vietnam is Iraqization-the main component of the current U.S. military strategy. In a people’s war, handing the fighting off to local forces makes sense because it undermines the nationalist component of insurgent resistance, improves the quality of local intelligence, and boosts troop strength. But in a communal civil war, it throws gasoline on the fire. Iraq’s Sunnis perceive the ‘national’ army and police force as a Shiite-Kurdish militia on steroids.”
Full text of Biddle’s article (now public on foreignaffairs.org): http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85201/stephen-biddle/seeing-baghdad-thinking-saigon.html