Dems slipping in state races
USA Today - June 11, 2006
Dems slipping in state races By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The political landscape has gotten friendlier for
congressional Democrats over the past six months, but the party’s
prospects for scoring big gains in governors’ races now look more
difficult.
In some cases, the same concerns that are costing congressional
Republicans — and raising Democrats’ hopes of gaining control of the
House or Senate — are hurting Democratic governors in November’s races.
In Michigan, Gov. Jennifer Granholm — the darling of Democrats when
she was elected in 2002 — is now in a dead heat with Republican
challenger Dick DeVos. A statewide poll last month by EPIC-MRA put
him at 46%, her at 45%. Last fall, she had held a 23-point lead.
“Michiganders are furious at life, so they’re furious at the
governor,” says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. DeVos, former
president of Amway, has been airing TV ads since February that tap
voters’ discontent over the state’s direction and its battered
economy. The state has the nation’s second-highest unemployment rate,
after Mississippi.
In Wisconsin, Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle is increasingly vulnerable,
in part because of ethics controversies in his administration. In a
statewide Strategic Vision poll in April, Doyle was at 45%; U.S. Rep.
Mark Green, a Republican hopeful, was at 43%.
“At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats were expected to make
significant gains,” says Jennifer Duffy, who tracks governors’ races
for the non-partisan Cook Political Report. “Now they will likely
make gains, but they won’t be nearly what was originally thought.”
Among the nation’s 10 biggest states, Democratic prospects since the
beginning of the year have gotten tougher in four — California,
Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania — and better in one, New York.
Jon Summers of the Democratic Governors Association acknowledges that
Democrats’ high expectations in some states have been tempered. But
he says prospects have improved elsewhere, including Arkansas and
Colorado, both now rated as toss-ups. “There has been some give and
take,” he says.
The GOP has more governorships at risk this year. Among 36 races on
the ballot, 22 are for Republican-held seats, 14 for Democratic-held
ones.
Since 1994, Republicans have held a majority of governorships — now
28 states to Democrats’ 22. Democrats hope to turn that around this
year by picking up at least four of them.
That’s important because governors often lead the way for their
parties in shaping innovative policies on issues such as health care
and immigration. They typically build statewide political
organizations that can help in presidential elections. And the
position is the favored launch pad for the White House: Four of the
last five presidents first served as governors.
There are some bright spots for Democrats. New York Attorney General
Eliot Spitzer is favored to win a governorship that has been in
Republican hands for 12 years. Former Massachusetts governor William
Weld’s exit from the New York race last week removed Spitzer’s
strongest potential opponent.
Then there’s California, the nation’s biggest prize.
Last fall, Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s standing had
crashed. After shifting staff and strategy, though, his ratings are
on the rise. State Treasurer Phil Angelides won the Democratic
nomination in last week’s primary, but the hard-fought intraparty
battle has left some scars.
In a statewide Field Poll two weeks ago, Schwarzenegger led Angelides
46%-39%. In October, the governor trailed the treasurer by 6
percentage points. “I do think that today it’s Schwarzenegger’s to
lose,” says political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe of the University
of Southern California.