Debka: US disappointed in Israeli military
[I know this has come up before but I don’t remember the answer -
who’s Debka exactly and are they at all reliable?]
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1188
Washington Expected an IDF Grand Slam to Dispose of Hizballah DEBKAfile Special Report
July 23, 2006, 6:22 PM (GMT+02:00)
US officials are not yet saying so out loud, but in private and “on
condition of anonymity,” White House circles are signaling
disappointment.
It arises from the expectation that the Israeli Defense Forces, the
most effective Middle East army, would dispose of Hassan Nasrallah
and his Hizballah in a few days, presenting the Bush administration
and Sunni Muslim Arab rulers with a dearly hoped-for smash victory
against Islamic fundamentalist terrorists. Now, after 12 days of
Israeli air, sea and ground assaults, it is beginning to look as
though it will take a long, sustained effort to break Hizballah.
Therefore, US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice is coming to the
Middle East Monday, July 24, brandishing a whip in the form of an
implied deadline. She will assess the situation at close hand, talk
to allies in Rome Wednesday and go back to Washington after setting a
date to return in the week beginning July 30.
A really quick, crushing victory over the Hizballah could be achieved
by the landing of American forces in northern Lebanon – at the
invitation of the Beirut government. Nasrallah’s forces could then be
strangled between US forces and the Israeli army coming up from the
south.
But this is not on the cards for the simple reason that America is
willing to fight in Lebanon to the last Israeli soldier, just as Iran
is ready to fight to the last Hizballah combatant. Israel must beware
of being hustled into taking imprudent steps by the proxy contest
between the Washington and Tehran. Israel and its armed forces must
pursue their own national agenda which is to cripple the Hizballah
and inflict a defeat on Tehran, both of whom are sworn to destroy the
Jewish state. It is necessary for Israeli commanders to proceed
cautiously and set a pace that is commensurate with their military
capabilities. Their best fighting men must not be place needlessly in
harm’s way and Lebanese civilian casualties have to be avoided as far
as possible in a situation in which Hizballah stores its men and
weapons in domestic cellars, kitchens and banana groves. Above all,
Israel must beware of being drawn into tailoring its arduous and
dangerous campaign to the pressures of Washington’s disappointment.
After four years in Iraq, US forces know the score and understand the
challenges besetting Israel.
On Day Twelve of the war, Israel faces two major tactical difficulties:
- The enemy the IDF is pursuing is not a regular army which moves
divisions around, but a small militia of 4,000 hardened, highly
trained jihadist guerrillas, who have reduced their offensive against
Israel to two simple tactics: shooting rockets at population centers
and lying in wait for a chance to take Israeli troops unawares.
It therefore behooves Israeli forces, which Saturday, July 22,
launched a large-scale offensive to sanitize South Lebanon, to beat
Hizballah at the game of catching the opposition unawares. There is
no doubt that the Israeli army is badly in need of a success – and
not only to impress the Americans. Israel’s home front, though
solidly behind its servicemen, needs to be assured that the war is on
course and will be fought “until the job is finished.” This is the
mantra heard up and down Israel, most insistently from the one-third
of the population taking the punishment of lives lost or disrupted
and homes destroyed by daily rocket attacks, with very little complaint.
This assurance is beginning to wear thin as the Hizballah rocket
blitz intensifies day by day. Saturday, they shot a record 160
rockets at dozens of towns and communities. Sunday, July 23, the ball
bearings packed in the Katyusha warheads punched hundreds of holes in
a car and a workshop, killing two men on the spot. Sirens were heard
for the first time in Binyamina, Zichron Yaacov and Kfar Ada, 70 km
from the Lebanese border and the deepest south yet. The buildings of
Israel’s third largest city, Haifa, and many other towns of northern
Israel, are severely battered and bear the scars of blasts which
scatter the metal balls designed to maximize human injuries.
The week’s grace that Rice appears to be granting the Israeli
government and armed forces for bringing the war to a successful
conclusion is also a boon for Tehran, Syria and Hizballlah. It gives
them time to engineer a nasty surprise to greet the US secretary’s
second visit, hitting Israel at the very moment that the diplomats
weigh in to start the process for ending hostilities. Israel will
then be told to hold back on reprisals. This dead-end maneuver will
be painfully familiar to the many peacemakers who tried their luck
with the Palestinians, notably Condoleezza Rice’s predecessor, Colon
Powell.
While Syrian officials angle for direct talks with the United States
and call for a ceasefire, Damascus is preparing to step into the war.
Damascus is preparing to step into the war. Syrian information
minister Mohsein Bilal warned Sunday, July 23, that Syria will join
the conflict if Israeli ground forces in Lebanon approach the Syrian
border. But Bashar Assad also prefers to hide behind the back of a
proxy. The ruling Syrian Baath suddenly “discovered” Sunday a new
organization called the “Front for the Liberation of Golan,” claiming
it launched its first attack last Thursday, July 20, on an Israeli
army post. It was said to have killed 8 Israeli soldiers and taken
two hostages to be held in Syria against the release of Golan Druzes
in Israeli jails. The tale is made of whole cloth, but it is a straw
that shows which way the wind is blowing in Damascus.
Neither Damascus nor Tehran – and certainly not the Hizballah - have
any intention of leaving the diplomatic initiative in the hands of
the US secretary of state. They will do their utmost to stay one step
ahead of any American-led steps and keep Israeli forces from running
away with a victory. The way events are going now, both the Americans
and Israelis will soon be confronted with the necessity to cut both
Syria and Iran down to size.