Israel-Hezbollah poll
[This shows less perfervid - to use one of Marty Peretz’ favorite
words - support for Israel than I’d have guessed.]
ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: ISRAEL and HEZBOLLAH – 8/6/06 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Monday, Aug. 7, 2006
Public See Blame to Share in Israel-Hezbollah Conflict
Americans find room to criticize both sides in the Israel-Hezbollah
war: A majority says Hezbollah is mainly to blame for civilian
casualties in Lebanon, given its location in civilian areas. But most
also say Israel hasn’t done enough to avoid those casualties.
Indeed Americans divide evenly on whether Israel’s bombing of
civilian areas is justified – a tepid level of support for a longtime
ally. And while very few blame Israel alone for the conflict, more
blame both sides equally than blame only Hezbollah.
Just 38 percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll say Israel is
“doing all it reasonably can” to avoid civilian casualties in
Lebanon, while 54 percent say it should do more. By contrast, in a
June ABC/Post poll, 58 percent said the United States was doing all
it could to avoid harming civilians in Iraq.
Despite the lack of widespread support for the Israeli actions,
nearly six in 10 Americans primarily blame Hezbollah for causing
Lebanese casualties by locating its rockets and fighters in civilian
areas; just two in 10 say Israel’s more to blame, for bombing those
areas.
More generally, 32 percent say Israel has been using too much force
in the current conflict, about as many as say it’s using the right
amount. Fewer, about two in 10, say it’s not using enough force.
CEASE-FIRE – On a cease-fire, public sentiment is more with Israel.
Fifty-five percent say it should agree to a cease-fire only if
Hezbollah disarms first, a position taken last week by Israel and the
United States alike. (A cease-fire plan at the United Nations
faltered this weekend on Lebanese complaints that it didn’t call for
the withdrawal of Israeli forces.)
Ultimately, two-thirds support the creation of a U.N. peacekeeping
force to separate the combatants. But among those who support a U.N.
force, nearly six in 10 say the United States should not participate
in it. In addition to the risks, this likely reflects public unease
with the idea of placing U.S. forces under U.N. command.
In terms of direct U.S. interests, just over a third of Americans
think the battle between Israel and Hezbollah will worsen the
situation for the United States in Iraq. More, 54 percent, say it
won’t make much difference there. (George W. Bush gets mixed marks
for handling the Israel-Hezbollah situation: 43 percent approve, 50
percent disapprove.)
Most, moreover, think it will come to naught for Israel: Just 21
percent think the conflict will end in a way that makes Israel more
secure, while nearly three-quarters think Israel’s security will be
either unchanged, or worse than it was when the fighting began.
When fighting ends, Israel will be
More secure 21%
Less secure 13
About the same 60
GROUPS – Views on the conflict are strongly influenced by factors
including political partisanship, ideology, race and religious
preference. Republicans are substantially more supportive of Israel,
Democrats less so. One reason is that support for Israel spikes among
conservatives and evangelical white Protestants, core Republican
groups. Overall, for instance, about six in 10 Republicans call the
Israeli attacks on Hezbollah targets in civilian areas justified,
while six in 10 Democrats disagree. Independents split evenly on the
question.
Republicans by more than a 4-1 margin blame Hezbollah more than
Israel for Lebanese civilian casualties; Democrats blame Hezbollah as
well, but by a much narrower margin, less than 2-1. And about seven
in 10 Republicans say Israel should agree to a cease-fire only after
Hezbollah disarms; just 48 percent of Democrats agree. Reluctance to
contribute U.S. troops to a U.N. peacekeeping force, however, crosses
partisan lines.
As noted, ideology plays a key role in partisan differences.
Conservatives are twice as likely as liberals to call the Israeli
bombing justified, much more likely to blame Hezbollah for Lebanese
civilian deaths and more likely to say Israel should agree to a cease-
fire only if Hezbollah disarms first.
Race and religion also are factors, with whites, especially white
evangelical Protestants, particularly supportive of Israel.
Israel Blame Hezbollah
bombing justified for civilian casualties
All 47% 58%
Democrats 34 51
Republicans 62 70
Independents 48 58
Whites 52 62
Non-whites 30 45
Wh. evang. Prot. 57 69
Catholics 45 56
No religion 39 50
Liberals 28 48
Moderates 47 59
Conservatives 56 63
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by
telephone August 3-6, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,002
adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data
collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
Analysis by Gary Langer and Jon Cohen.
ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at http://abcnews.com/ pollvault.html.