Joementum is back! really!!
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=w060807&s=lizza080906
JOE LIEBERMAN’S CAMPAIGN IS JUST STARTING. Vital Signs by Ryan Lizza
Last night, Ned Lamont made the first mistake of his general election
campaign against independent Democrat Joe Lieberman and token
Republican Alan Schlesinger. Having won a historic primary victory
against a well-financed, three-term senator and former popular, vote-
winning vice-presidential candidate, Lamont should have used his
victory speech last night to crush Lieberman. He should have
emphasized that the voters decisively rejected Lieberman. He should
have called for Lieberman to exit the race immediately. He should
have consolidated his victory and raised the price of Lieberman’s
indie bid. He should have used his televised speech to land the death
blow to Lieberman that his small margin of victory failed to deliver.
Instead, a reluctant Lamont meandered through a clipped version of
his stump speech. He seemed to downplay the incredible win he had
just achieved. It was a missed opportunity. After all, just minutes
before, Lieberman, instead of giving a concession speech, launched
his general election campaign. Lamont had–and may still have–a
small window to shut that campaign down, but he is off to a bad
start. The overall effect of the dueling speeches–with Lieberman
ignoring the fact he lost and Lamont ignoring the fact he won–was to
greatly diminish Lamont’s victory. This bit of theater worked so well
for Lieberman that, on an early morning edition of “Hardball,” Chris
Matthews treated Sean Smith, Lieberman’s campaign manager, as if he
had just scored a brilliant victory. “How did you guys close the
gap?” Matthews asked, clearly impressed.
Like Lamont, senior Democrats are late in trying to stop Lieberman’s
indie bid. According to Senate sources, a decision was made by
Lieberman’s Democratic colleagues not to put any pressure on him
yesterday to abandon his plan for a second round with Lamont. “They
didn’t want to stick a knife him tonight,” says a top Senate
Democratic strategist. “Throughout the day, the idea had been that,
depending on what you want to happen, you can’t box the guy in the
corner,” says another senior Democratic Senate aide. “I’m not aware
that anyone approached him.” Now, it’s probably too late. Get ready
for round two of Lieberman-Lamont.
Some Democratic Senators will endorse Lamont this morning, but don’t
expect much more than a press release. The Democratic Senatorial
Campaign Committee has no intention of throwing any real money at
Lamont. “This race will have zero bearing on who controls the Senate
after Election Day in November,” says a top Democrat involved in
Senate campaign strategy. “Why would we spend money defending a seat
that will be blue either way? It just takes funds from important
seats like Montana. It’s counterproductive to the cause.” The message
to Lamont? If you want the seat so bad, spend your own money: “The
fact of the matter is that Lamont has seven million dollars he can
draw on.”
This is music to the Lieberman campaign’s ears. It’s counting on top
Democrats to change the subject quickly. “A bunch of Democrats out of
obligation will endorse Lamont, and then they will disappear,” says a
senior Lieberman aide. “They will nominally endorse him and then head
for the hills.”
He seems to be right. Washington Democrats aren’t interested in
fighting another round with Lieberman. They are eager to turn the
conversation back to Bush. They downplay the national implications of
the race and are eager to move on. “We’ll put the focus back on
Bush,” says a senior Senate aide. “You know, ‘The primary was a
referendum on Bush, and so Republicans have a lot to fear.’” They
also reject the idea that the primary changes the Iraq debate: “Our
Iraq policy has been driven by [Harry] Reid and [Carl] Levin. To be
honest, they could give a rat’s ass about the blogs. In other words,
these are policy-based decisions, and aren’t driven by the politics
of Connecticut or anywhere else.”
That’s why Lamont’s primary victory won’t mean all that much after
all. Expectations are everything in politics, and Lamont’s small
margin of victory has failed to impress the commentariat, which was
ready for a blowout after seeing Lamont’s gaping thirteen-point lead
last week. Meanwhile, Democrats are ready to turn their attention to
the races that actually matter–the ones that will help them take
back Congress. Similarly, the national press–consumed with the
Connecticut race during the dead month of August–will now move on to
other contests.
As a result, the Connecticut general election will turn into just
another contest in a busy campaign season. After an inevitable bump
in Democratic support for Lamont, the race is likely to narrow into a
two-man race. If Senate Democrats like Colorado’s Ken Salazar stick
to their pledge to support Lieberman’s indie bid, he will have more
than enough cover to claim that the party isn’t unified against him.
Moreover, Lamont may find that the institutional support of his
state’s Democratic Party is not such a massive advantage. Connecticut
Democrats haven’t elected one of their own to the governor’s mansion
in 16 years.
Will money dry up for Lieberman? His campaign insists it isn’t
worried about raising cash. “It will probably be easier,” says a
senior Lieberman aide, perhaps a tad optimistically. “There’s going
to be a lot of people around the country who heard that appeal about
being fed up with the politics of polarization and Washington. Also,
there will be pro-Israel money, and the Jewish community will rally
to his side in a big way. Raising money is the least difficult part
of this challenge.”
Asked if there’s any chance the senator will abandon his run if
influential friends like Senator Chris Dodd and Bill Clinton make
personal pleas, the Lieberman aide says no way. “I’m sure Dodd will
try to talk to him. But you saw him tonight. There is no walking back
from this. He’s made up his mind.”
Ryan Lizza is a senior editor at The New Republic.