WSJ poll: Bush up
[gotta love this classic split-the-difference thinking: “When offered
a choice between a Republican who wants to maintain troop levels and
a Democrat who wants to reduce them, voters choose the Democrat by a
53%-40% margin. If offered a choice between a Republican who wants to
maintain troop levels and a Democrat seeking “immediate and orderly
withdrawal,” voters prefer the Republican by 48%-41%.”]
Wall Street Journal - September 14, 2006
Bush Gets a Lift From Emphasis On Terror, Iraq
Poll Shows Uptick in Support For President, War Effort; Overall Approval Still Weak
By JOHN HARWOOD
WASHINGTON — President Bush’s efforts to explain and win support for
his policies on Iraq and terrorism appear to be paying some initial
dividends as midterm congressional campaigns heat up.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that Mr. Bush’s overall
approval rating, as well as his marks on handling Iraq, rose modestly
after a series of speeches imploring Americans to remain patient
despite repeated setbacks in Iraq. Voters also expressed slightly
increased willingness to maintain U.S. troop strength there as
commanders struggle to tamp down a continued insurgency and sectarian
violence.
It remains “a modest uptick” in “a very difficult national
environment” for the president’s party in midterm elections, cautions
Republican pollster Bill McInturff. The president’s approval rating
remains weak at 42%, though it is improved from 38% in June. A 54%
majority of voters continues to say the U.S. is headed in the wrong
direction.
Yet the poll results suggest Mr. Bush retains some ability to shape
the context of the election to his party’s benefit. Whether that can
last beyond the anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks through to
Election Day on Nov. 7 remains an open question. If so, the president
could lighten what has been a period of persistent gloom for
Republicans. Along with the roiling Iraq issue, factors that have
cost the party range from the federal government’s initial response
to Hurricane Katrina to the administration’s fizzled Social Security
privatization to rising gasoline prices.
The unpopular war and the historic pattern of midterm losses for the
party holding the White House have strategists in both parties
maintaining forecasts of Republican losses in Congress. Still, it
remains unclear whether those losses will flip control of the House
or the Senate or both. Republicans have held the House since 1994 and
the Senate since 2002.
“In meteorological terms, it’s going to be a hurricane — what has
yet to be determined is whether it’s Category 1 or Category 3 or
Category 5,” says Peter Hart, the Democratic pollster who conducts
the Journal/NBC survey with Mr. McInturff. “If [Mr. Bush] has the
ability to dominate the dialogue, he can push this election toward
the Republicans even as he remains unpopular with the voters.”
Mr. Bush used the 9/11 anniversary to buttress his assertion that
Iraq is the “central front” in the antiterror campaign, an argument
that might help Republicans limit their losses and hold control of at
least one chamber of Congress for the final two years of Mr. Bush’s
presidency.
And officials of the Republican Party and at the White House
yesterday were celebrating the Tuesday night primary victory of a
Republican who opposed the war, moderate Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode
Island. Though Mr. Chafee had opposed Mr. Bush on tax cuts and the
war, party strategists concluded he has a far better chance of
holding the seat against Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse in November than
his conservative challenger did. Mr. Chafee’s re-election would
increase the odds against the Democrats’ gaining the six seats it
needs to capture Senate control. (Please see related article.)
Strategists in both parties believe Democrats have a stronger chance
of picking up the 15 seats necessary to win control of the House. Yet
economic developments have the potential to brighten voters’ mood
after months in which Mr. Bush and Republicans received scant credit
for continued growth and low unemployment.
Crude-oil prices have fallen from $77 a barrel in early August to
$63.97 yesterday, sending gasoline prices well below previous highs
of more than $3 a gallon at the pump. And stock prices continued
their climb from a slump in July: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
rose 45.23 points yesterday to close at 11543.32 — just 1.6% short
of the record.
So far, all of this is providing only mixed benefits for Republican
candidates. Approval of Congress actually fell to 20% in this month’s
survey from 24% in July, and Democrats maintained a 48%-39% edge on
voters’ preference of which party should control Capitol Hill.
At the same time, the Journal/NBC poll shows voters split on whether
their incumbent House member deserves re-election. In July, voters
said it was time to “give a new person a chance” by a 10-percentage-
point margin. Voters also say by 42% to 37% that they are more
concerned Democrats have offered “no specific plans” than that
Republicans have offered “no changes” to deal with the country’s
problems. The telephone survey of 1,009 registered voters, conducted
Sept. 8-11, carries a margin for error of 3.1 percentage points.
In part, those results show the impact of Republican candidates’
advertising attacks on their Democratic foes at an earlier point in
the campaign season than in past elections. Democrats acknowledge
that Mr. Bush’s party has been quicker this year than President
Clinton’s allies were in 1994 to gauge the depth of political trouble
they face and adjust tactics accordingly.
The adjustments have been reflected on Capitol Hill in Republican
leaders’ decision, made in conjunction with White House officials, to
spend September debating the surveillance and prosecution of terror
suspects in the wake of court decisions rejecting Mr. Bush’s initial
approach to both. Some Republican lawmakers are dissenting from Mr.
Bush’s approach, but the Journal/NBC survey shows voters prefer
Republicans to Democrats on handling terrorism by a 14-percentage-
point margin. (Please see related article.)
Another such step was Republican leaders’ decision to shelve Mr.
Bush’s request for a comprehensive overhaul of immigration laws in
the face of conservative opposition to a guest-worker program
embracing some who already have crossed the border illegally.
Instead, House Republicans spent much of the summer courting
conservatives by emphasizing border security.
Whatever the cause, the Journal/NBC poll shows Republicans have taken
initial steps toward narrowing the gap in voter interest that has
favored the Democratic faithful for months. In July, 57% of
Democratic voters expressed the highest possible level of interest in
the election, compared with 46% of Republicans.
Now, that “interest gap” has narrowed to 51%-46% in the Democrats’
favor. Hispanic voters, the constituency Republicans have feared
alienating with an emphasis on border security, evince significantly
less interest in the election than either whites or African-Americans.
Democrats hold the upper hand on some key issues in the survey,
including a 23-percentage-point edge on handling Social Security and
a 12-percentage-point advantage on handling the economy. Voters
citing jobs, Social Security or health care as their top priority –
a group that accounts for nearly half the electorate — want
Democrats to win control of Congress, 60% to 25%.
Yet the slightly smaller group naming terrorism, moral values or
immigration as top priorities favors Republican control by a
similarly lopsided margin. That means control of the campaign
dialogue will be a critical factor in battleground House and Senate
races.
The Iraq war, now in its fourth year and with more than 2,500 U.S.
troop deaths, remains the Republicans’ most daunting political
problem because it has depressed the overall public mood and fueled
demand for change. Still, the poll shows how Republican candidates
may best be able to limit the political fallout.
When offered a choice between a Republican who wants to maintain
troop levels and a Democrat who wants to reduce them, voters choose
the Democrat by a 53%-40% margin. If offered a choice between a
Republican who wants to maintain troop levels and a Democrat seeking
“immediate and orderly withdrawal,” voters prefer the Republican by
48%-41%.
“There’s a reason that Republicans and the president are trying to
make this a choice for stability [in Iraq] versus ‘cut-and-run,’”
says Mr. McInturff, the Republican pollster. “If you’re a Republican
candidate, you’d better make this election on a narrow range of issues.”
The Journal/NBC survey shows Mr. Bush’s approval rating on the
economy has risen to 43% from 39% in June. That may in part reflect
an easing of energy costs; 26% cite “gas prices and energy costs” as
the biggest economic trouble spot, down from 41% in July.
Rising stock-market values haven’t yet translated into increasing
optimism about the economy. Just one in five voters surveyed says the
economy has improved in the past year, unchanged since June.