Dick Morris: forget that Gallup poll
[Dick Morris] Wake up call for GOP or snooze alarm for Dems
With the Gallup Poll showing a spike in Bush’s approval ratings and a
narrowing of the gap between Democrats and Republicans in party
congressional preferences, a looming question is how enduring the
change is. Will it last until November?
Presidential-support scores and party ballot preferences are
notoriously fickle, often swinging one way or another in a matter of
weeks. I recall vividly how Clinton felt that his ratings had
improved after his orchestration of a Mideast peace accord between
Jordan and Israel one week before the 1994 elections. He returned
home buoyed by the uptick and determined to campaign for deserving
Democrats. But his campaigning backfired and made the newly minted
statesman seem like a party politician and his ratings dropped again,
paving the way for the ’94 debacle for the Democrats.
The growth in Republican fortunes is not based on any real change in
either the economy or the war on terror. Very little is different in
September than in June or July. The growth in Bush’s ratings and in
Republican chances is entirely due to a change in voter perceptions
brought about by the confluence of three events:
The thwarting of a serious al Qaeda plan to blow up airplanes over
the Atlantic.The renewed national debate on imprisonment and interrogation of
terror suspects.The anniversary of Sept.11, the Bush speech on that day, and the
ABC-TV docudrama exposing the failure of Clinton’s efforts to get bin
Laden.
These three events have not only served to rivet public attention on
the war on terror, but they have also severed the domestic effort to
protect our homeland security from the War in Iraq. It is no longer
necessary to approve of the war in order to want to keep Republicans
in power to avoid dilution of our anti-terror initiatives.
The problem for the Republicans is that the voters of this country
badly want the Democrats to win when it comes to almost every issue
other than domestic terror. Despite the good economy, they trust
Democrats more on jobs. The deficit is shrinking, but they still
trust Democrats more on the budget. And on issues like Social
Security, Medicare, drug costs, education, climate change, and the
environment, they trust Democrats more and always have.
Only on immigration do the Republicans battle successfully, but their
ability to cite their efforts is fatally undermined by their failure
to get together and pass immigration reform when they controlled both
houses and the White House.
So, with the underlying situation not much changed, it is probable
that the mood will pass and that the Democrats will resume their
domination of the 2006 election.
The problem for the Democrats is that we really do face a huge
terrorist threat and there really is a key difference between the
parties in how they would handle it. A Democratic victory giving them
control of both houses would, in fact, undermine our efforts to keep
America safe. The need for the Patriot Act and NSA wiretapping and
the need to resist Democratic attempts to undermine them is never
more apparent than in the 9/11 Commission report as highlighted in
the ABC mini-series.
Americans have been far too cavalier in dismissing the chances of
another major terror strike, and the Democrats have gone much too far
out on a limb in opposing Bush’s efforts to interrogate terror
suspects and to wiretap international phone calls. (By the way, Sen.
John McCain (R-Ariz.) may be in the process of killing his chances
for the GOP nomination and Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) may be in
midst of destroying his reelection chances over the same issue). The
reality of these threats may well be clearer as the election
approaches, kindled by the fifth anniversary reminders of 9/11.
So, did Americans wake up to the need to keep Republicans in office
to defend against terror? Or was it just a snooze alarm and will they
go back to sleep? The polls in the next weeks will tell the story.