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For Bush, cheaper gas is premium
Updated 9/21/2006 12:35 AM ET E-mail | Save | Print | Reprints &
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By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — When it comes to President Bush’s approval rating — the
number that measures his political health — one factor seems more
powerful than any Oval Office address or legislative initiative.
It’s the price of a gallon of gas.
Statisticians who have compared changes in gas prices and Bush’s
ratings through his presidency have found a steady relationship: As
gas prices rise, his ratings fall. As gas prices fall, his ratings rise.
For some Americans, analysts speculate, gas prices provide a
shorthand reading of the general state of the economy. Even though
prices at the pump are largely outside the president’s control, he
gets credit when they fall — and blame when they rise.
“Gas prices are a price everybody knows because it hangs on the
street in big letters,” says Stuart Thiel, an economist at DePaul
University in Chicago who has been tracking the trend for several years.
A statistical analysis by Doug Henwood, editor of the liberal
newsletter Left Business Observer, found that an “uncanny” 78% of the
movement in Bush’s ratings could be correlated with changes in gas
prices. Based on trends in crude oil prices, Henwood predicted last
Thursday that it “wouldn’t be surprising to see his approval numbers
rise into the mid-40s.”
In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday, Bush’s rating
rose to 44%, his highest in a year. Average gas prices, which peaked
at more than $3 a gallon in August, had dropped under $2.50, the
lowest since March.
A renewed focus on terrorism contributed to Bush’s turnaround,
analysts say. “When they put the terror issue out there, they tend to
get political points,” says sociologist Robb Willer of the University
of California, Berkeley.
Gas prices may be “a proxy for larger developments in the political
economy,” Henwood says. For instance, the war in Iraq and Hurricane
Katrina, which drove up fuel costs, also eroded Bush’s support.
The ratings of Bush’s three immediate predecessors weren’t closely
tied to gas prices, Henwood found. Volatile prices and a supply
crunch did contribute to President Jimmy Carter’s political travails.
For Bush, too, prices have been volatile, and his background as an
oilman may be a factor affecting public attitudes. In the USA TODAY
poll, two in five said the administration has deliberately
manipulated gas prices to decline before the fall elections.
Routine market forces are likely to deliver more good news to Bush,
says Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service. Absent an
international crisis, he predicts gas prices will drop an additional
10 to 20 cents a gallon by Election Day.