Re: Bush and gas prices: trend shifting?
On Oct 10, 2006, at 11:57 AM, Miles Jackson wrote:
I use Doug’s Bush approval-gas price association as an example of
bivariate regression in my methods course. It’s an uncanny, strong
relationship. However, as gas prices fall, the trend doesn’t seem
to be following Doug’s regression line. Bush’s ratings are back
down to the low 30s, when the regression model predicts a
significantly higher approval rating. Residual error, or
meaningful shift in the trend?
When a model stops working, maybe the numbers are telling us
something (though I used Gallup’s approval rating, and the latest is
37, not the low 30s, like the Times/CBS poll - for some reason, maybe
Gallup’s Republican bias vs. the liberal NYT/CBS bias, Gallup’s
numbers are consistently higher). Something - Foley et al - seems to
have shifted against the Reps in the last week or two.
Doug