spare the Rodham…
[Jordan says that double quoting URLs prevents those line breaks that
so annoy Ravi]
“http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/10/20/poll.08/index.html”
Poll: Spare the ‘Rodham,’ spoil her election POSTED: 6:47 p.m. EDT, October 20, 2006
(CNN) — If presidential elections were held today, Sen. Hillary
Rodham Clinton would likely have a comfortable edge over Sen. John
McCain, but take away her maiden name and McCain has a better shot of
landing in the Oval Office.
So say the results of a CNN poll released Friday by Opinion Research
Corp., which asked 506 adult Americans whom they preferred among
potential 2008 presidential candidates. The margin of error for the
survey is plus or minus 4.5 percent.
Asked if they preferred Hillary Rodham Clinton to McCain, respondents
gave the Democratic New York senator and former first lady a 51
percent to 44 percent advantage over the Republican Senator from
Arizona. Remove “Rodham” and McCain had a 1 percentage point
advantage, 48 percent to 47 percent.
The results fall within the sample’s margin of error, so there is a
“good chance, but not a statistical certainty” that Clinton’s maiden
name would help her in a matchup against McCain, said Keating
Holland, CNN’s polling director.
The results are consistent with earlier testing that indicated
Clinton’s favorability rose when her maiden name was included in the
question, Holland said.
However, using “Rodham” seems to cut into Clinton’s edge if her
opponent is former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Though Clinton has an advantage over Giuliani with or without her
maiden name, using “Rodham” closes the gap. Asked if they prefer
Hillary Clinton or Giuliani, Clinton has a 4 percentage point
advantage, 50 percent to 46 percent.
Add “Rodham” to the equation and the former first lady’s advantage
over the Republican former mayor drops to 1 percentage point, 48
percent to 47 percent.
Holland notes that the results are moot for two reasons: The election
is still 2 years off and no poll will accurately predict a race that
far in advance; and Clinton has always appeared on the ballot using
her middle name, and there is no sign that she intends to abandon it
in future elections.