Re: ABC/WaPo Poll: The Late Republican Surge Is Here
[Here’s the actual poll, instead of right-wing reports on it. Since
feelings are very high this year, normal likely voter algorithms may
underpredict turnout.]
ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: ‘06 ELN FINAL 11/4/06 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 7 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 5, 2006
Democrats Hold the Lead, Slightly More Narrowly
Democrats head to Election Day with a continued advantage in voter
preference, fueled by discontent with the war in Iraq and broad
unhappiness with George W. Bush and the Republican-led Congress alike.
The president’s party may have gained back some ground: The
Democrats’ lead among likely voters in the latest ABC News/Washington
Post poll is perhaps a bit narrower than its recent level, unseen in
congressional elections since post-Watergate 1974 and 1976. Still,
discontent remains impressive. Just 40 percent of Americans approve
of George W. Bush’s job performance, the lowest for a president
heading into a midterm election since Harry Truman in 1950, when his
party lost 29 seats in Congress. Ronald Reagan’s rating in 1982 was
42 percent, similar to Bush’s now; that year the Republicans lost 26
seats.
Among registered voters, 60 percent disapprove of the way the
Republican-led Congress is handling its job, 59 percent say the
country is headed in the wrong direction and 53 percent say the war
in Iraq was not worth fighting. A majority hasn’t backed the war in
two years.
Fifty-three percent of registered voters in this poll support
Democratic candidates for Congress, while 43 percent support
Republicans. Among likely voters it’s 51-45 percent, less broad than
the Democrats’ double-digit advantage in the last ABC/Post poll, but
still sufficient for change: Republicans won the national House vote
by seven points in 1994, the year they gained 52 seats and took
control of Congress.
The Democrats’ advantage is remarkable in what has been mostly a
50/50 nation. The national vote for House, in the last four elections
has been, Dem. vs. Rep., 47-49 percent, 45-50 percent, 47-47 percent,
and 47-48 percent.
Republican candidates are doing better in groups where some late
improvement might be expected for example, among married men,
previously undecided independents and people who say their financial
situation has improved in the last year. They also get some help from
a sense, expressed by nearly half of registered voters, that the
Democrats have not offered clear policy alternatives.
Married women, a changeable group that House Republicans won by nine
points in 2004, split about evenly now. Democrats lead among
independents, classic swing voters, by a still-hefty 56-38 percent;
it was 59-31 percent among independents in the last ABC/Post poll
Oct. 22.
Very few registered or likely voters just two or three percent
are undecided in this survey. Undecideds are a product of polling
technique; other polls in the past few days have had them as high as
eight percent of likely voters.
The generic congressional horse race captures attitudes nationally,
but doesn’t predict how candidates will fare in individual state- and
district-level races. The mood is not broadly anti-incumbent; 56
percent of registered voters approve of their own representative’s
job performance. Fewer, as low as 49 percent, approved of their own
representative shortly before the 1994 election.
While 59 percent say the country’s on the wrong track, this too was
worse 69 percent just before Congress changed hands in 1994. It
was worse still in 1992, when economic discontent pushed Bush’s
father out of office.
One continuing trend is in the level of anti-Bush voting this year:
Registered voters by nearly a 2-1 margin, 31 to 17 percent, say
they’re casting their vote to show opposition to Bush rather than to
show support for him. (The rest, 50 percent, say he isn’t a factor.)
1998 is a stark contrast: Then, even in the height of the Lewinsky
scandal, just nine percent said they were voting to show opposition
to Bill Clinton.
Anti-Bush sentiment extends to his party; registered voters are nine
points more likely to say most Democrats deserve re-election than to
say most Republicans do. Still, the number who say most Democrats
deserve re-election has ebbed somewhat; campaign criticisms may have
taken some toll.
WAR The public’s most prominent complaint is the war in Iraq: Asked,
open-ended, why they say the country’s going in the wrong direction,
three in 10 registered voters cite the war, putting it far and away
first. About half as many, 16 percent, raise economic concerns; 12
percent mention corruption or general distrust of politicians; 11
percent cite problems with Bush.
Similarly, 31 percent call the war in Iraq the most important issue
in their vote; 21 percent say it’s the economy; 12 percent health
care; and about as many, 11 percent, cite terrorism. That’s different
than 2002, when the economy and terrorism shared top billing, and
2004, when it was terrorism, Iraq and the economy bunched together.
The change hurts the Republicans. Among people who call terrorism
their No. 1 issue, Republican candidates lead by nearly 60 points,
77-19 percent. Among the many more who call Iraq their top issue, by
contrast, Democratic candidates lead, 73-26 percent.
Although it doesn’t seem to hurt them among Iraq voters, Democrats
have slipped a bit on another Iraq gauge: Registered voters break
evenly on whom they trust more to handle the situation in Iraq, the
Democrats or the Republicans, 42-42 percent. It was a 48-40 percent
Democratic lead last month.
That may stem from the lack of consensus on whether the Democrats are
offering the country a clear direction that’s different from the
Republicans: Registered voters divide, 49-47 percent, on whether
that’s the case. It matters: Leaving aside partisans, among
independent voters who see a clear Democratic direction, Democrats
for House lead by 72-23 percent. By contrast, independents who don’t
see a new course from the Democrats divide, 44-50 percent, in their
vote preference.
Another question is whether the Democrats were hurt by a comment last
week by Sen. John Kerry that some took as disrespectful to veterans.
In this poll military veterans split 42-51 percent (Dem.-Rep.) for
House; in an early October ABC/Post poll, it was essentially the
same, 40-51 percent.
If the Democrats don’t show direct damage from the Kerry remark,
neither do the Republicans show direct damage from recent scandals
that have touched their party. In this poll registered voters divide
by 48-44 percent on whether the Democrats or the Republicans better
represent their personal values. That compares with 51-39 percent in
an early October poll and 50-41 percent in a poll done a year ago.
Evangelical white Protestants, a core Republican group sometimes
identified with the term “values,” favor Republicans for House by
64-31 percent margin. That compares with a 74-25 percent vote for
Republicans among this group in the 2004 exit poll.
ECONOMY Despite recent positive economic trends, the Republicans
show little if any improvement among economy voters; they break by
54-42 percent for Democratic candidates in this survey, compared with
a similar 57-39 percent last week.
The GOP does much better, with 70 percent support, among the roughly
one-quarter of Americans who say they’re getting ahead financially.
That is perhaps up, albeit within sampling error, from 64 percent
last month.
It’s not necessarily surprising that the economy isn’t providing more
of a boost to the president’s party. Clearly a bad economy is
political poison; but a good one, much less a great one, doesn’t
reliably accrue to the in-party’s benefit. (Ask Al Gore.)
GOTV/COUNT Another factor on Tuesday is the parties’ get-out-the-
vote efforts: Four in 10 registered voters say they’ve been contacted
recently on a candidate’s behalf, up from three in 10 two weeks ago.
And it could be that the Republicans’ vaunted machine is a bit better
turned: Among those who’ve been contacted, three in 10 say they’ve
been asked only to vote for a Republican, two in 10 only for a
Democrat. The rest have been approached by both sides.
Registered voters, finally, do not express broad doubts about the
vote count on Tuesday, but neither is their confidence supreme
perhaps not surprising, given news coverage of potential problems
with new electronic voting systems. Eighty-four percent are confident
their own votes will be counted accurately, but just 49 percent are
“very confident” of that. Among likely voters more, 56 percent, are
very confident in the vote count.
METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by
telephone Nov. 1-4, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,205
adults, including 1,037 who identified themselves as registered
voters. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data
collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
Analysis by Gary Langer.