GOP: beware of exit polls!
http://gop.com/News/Read.aspx?ID=6718
Tuesday, November 07, 2006 BEWARE OF EXIT POLLS
Biased And Inaccurate Predictions Have Led To Poor GOP Exit Poll Showings In Past Three National Elections
FAST FACTS ON EXIT POLLING
Election Experts Believe Exit Polls Give An Edge And Sway Towards
Democrat Candidates.
National Exit Polls Will Skew In Favor Of Democrats This Year, Due To
Large Numbers Of Uncontested Democrat Seats In The House Of
Representatives.
Early Exit Polling Returns In 2004 Were Widely Inaccurate, Declaring
Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) To Be The Next President Of The United States
And Republicans Barely Holding A One Seat Majority In The U.S. Senate.
In The 2002 Midterm Elections, Exit Polling Produced Unusable Data.
In 2000, Exit Polling Malfunctioned And Incorrectly Projecting Vice
President Al Gore As The Winner Of The Crucial Battleground State Of
Florida.
EXIT POLLS TRADITIONALLY HAVE A DEMOCRAT BIAS
Exit Polls Give Democrats An Edge:
Exit Polling Always Tends To “Give An Edge To Democratic Candidates.”
President of Mitofsky International, Warren Mitofsky: “Mitofsky said
exit polls have always tended to give an edge to Democratic
candidates …” (John Cook, “Early Exit Polls Overstated Kerry
Results, Media Group Says,” Chicago Tribune, 1/20/05)
“[Mitofsky] Said That For Reasons That Remain Unclear, Democratic
Voters Are More Likely Than Republicans To Agree To Interview
Requests From Pollsters.” (John Cook, “Early Exit Polls Overstated
Kerry Results, Media Group Says,” Chicago Tribune, 1/20/05)
Democrats More Likely Than Republicans To Respond To Exit Polls:
October 2006 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll Found Democrats Were More
Likely To Respond To Exit Polls Than Republicans.
72% Of Democrats Responded They Were Very Or Somewhat Likely To Fill
Out Questionnaire, Compared To 66% Of Republicans. (Fox News/Opinion
Dynamics Poll, 10/26/06)
44% Of Democrats Claimed They Were Very Likely To Fill Out Exit Poll
Survey, Compared To 35% Of Republicans. (Fox News/Opinion Dynamics
Poll, 10/26/06)
Democrats (37%-10%) And Republicans (25%-18%) Agreed That Democrats
Are More Likely To Share How They Voted With A Pollster They Do Not
Know. (Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll, 10/26/06)
In 2006, Exit Polls Skew In Favor Of Democrats, Due To Large Numbers
Of Uncontested Seats In The House:
In 2006, There Are Over 40 Uncontested Democrat Seats And 10
Uncontested GOP Seats, Which Will Overstate National Democrat House
Vote In Exit Polling. (National Journal Website,
www.nationaljournal.com, Accessed 11/6/06)
In 2004, There Were 39 Uncontested Republican Seats, Compared To 30
Uncontested Democrat Seats. (National Journal Website,
www.nationaljournal.com, Accessed 11/6/06)
In 2002, There Were 45 Uncontested Republican Seats, Compared To 36
Uncontested Democrat Seats. (National Journal Website,
www.nationaljournal.com, Accessed 11/6/06)
IN 2004, EXIT POLLING PREDICTED OVERWHELMING DEMOCRAT VICTORIES
In 2004, Exit Polls “Got All Of The Bush States Wrong” - Predictions
Were “Most Skewed” Since Exit Polling Began:
Exit Polls Showed Across-The-Board Failure. “[T]he networks did get
the exit polls wrong. Not just one of them. They got all of the Bush
states wrong.” (Dick Morris, “Those Faulty Exit Polls Were Sabotage,”
The Hill, 11/4/04)
“It Was Dej? Vu All Over Again With Major Embarrassment For Exit
Pollsters Since It Was Clear That They Way Underestimated Bush’s
Support In States Like Virginia That The President Won Handily Once
The Real Vote Came In.” (Deborah Orin et. al., “Voters Choose Double
Dubya,” New York Post, 11/3/04)
USA Today: “In fact, the 2004 numbers were the most skewed since
joint exit polling began in the 1980s.” (Editorial, “Exit Polls’
Cloud Crystal Ball,” USA Today, 1/20/05)
The [Cleveland, OH] Plain Dealer: “Add in poor weather, data
programming errors and other technical glitches, and the end product,
calculated to give major news operations an inside glimmer as to
which way the vote was going, instead produced the most inaccurate
information in the past five presidential elections.” (Editorial,
“The Pollsters Were Pole-Axed,” The [Cleveland, OH] Plain Dealer,
1/23/05)
San Francisco Chronicle: “If exit polls have a role at all, they need
to be staged carefully and handled with caution. Along with improved
methods, the report [by firms who came up with flawed 2004 exit
polls] suggested that no numbers be released to news organizations
until near the end of Election Day. That’s the least poll-takers can
do.” (Editorial, “Exit-Poll Errors,” San Francisco Chronicle, 1/21/05)
In 2004, National Election Pool (NEP) Incorrectly Projected Victories
For Sen. John Kerry (D-MA):
“ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, Fox, And NBC … Created The National Election
Pool To Provide Tabulated Vote Counts And Exit Poll Surveys … These
Six Major News Organization, In A Joint Decision … Appointed Edison
Media Research And Mitofsky International As The Sole Provider Of
Exit Polls …” (Exit-Poll.net Website, http://www.exit-poll.net/,
Accessed 10/24/06)
“In The 32 States With Exit Poll Estimates For Both A Presidential
Race And A Senate Race The Average Error On The Difference Between
The Top Two Candidates Was 5.0 Points In The Democratic Direction For
President And 3.6 Points In The Democratic Direction For
Senate.” (Edison Media Research And Mitofsky International,
“Evaluation Of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 For The National
Election Pool,” 1/19/05, p. 20)
Iowa: NEP Projected Sen. Kerry Winning By 1% - President Bush Carried
Iowa By .7%;
Nevada: NEP Projected Sen. Kerry Winning By 1.4% - President Bush
Carried Nevada By 2.6%;
New Mexico: NEP Projected Sen. Kerry Winning By 4.2%- President Bush
Carried New Mexico By .8%;
Ohio: NEP Projected Sen. Kerry Winning By 6.5% - President Bush
Carried By 2.1%;
Virginia: NEP Projected Sen. Kerry Winning By 0.5% - President Bush
Carried Virginia By 8.2%. (Edison Media Research And Mitofsky
International, “Evaluation Of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004
For The National Election Pool,” 1/19/05, p. 21-22)
NEP’s Exit Poll Projections Underestimated President Bush’s Support
In Several Key States:
Minnesota: NEP Projected Sen. Kerry Winning By 14.3% — Sen. Kerry
Won By 3.5%;
New Hampshire: NEP Projected Sen. Kerry Winning By 15% — Sen. Kerry
Won By 1.4%;
North Carolina: NEP Projected President Bush Winning By 3.6% –
President Bush Won By 12.4%;
Pennsylvania: NEP Projected Sen. Kerry Winning By 13.8% — Sen. Kerry
Won By 2.3%;
Wisconsin: NEP Projected Sen. Kerry Winning By 5.7% — Sen. Kerry Won
By .4%. (Edison Media Research And Mitofsky International,
“Evaluation Of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 For The National
Election Pool,” 1/19/05, p. 21-22)
NEP’s Exit Poll Projections Had Republicans Winning Only 51 Senate
Seats Instead Of 55 Seats They Hold Now:
Alaska: NEP Projected Former Gov. Tony Knowles (D-AK) Senate Victory;
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) Won;
Florida: NEP Projected Dem Betty Castor (D-FL) Senate Victory; Sen.
Mel Martinez (R-FL) Won;
Kentucky: NEP Projected Dem Dan Mongiardo (D-KY) Senate Victory; Sen.
Jim Bunning (R-KY) Won;
North Carolina: NEP Projected Dem Erskine Bowles (D-NC) Senate
Victory; Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) Won. (Edison Media Research And
Mitofsky International, “Evaluation Of Edison/Mitofsky Election
System 2004 For The National Election Pool,” 1/19/05, p. 23)
Political Professionals Agree 2004 Highlighted Exit Polling’s Failures:
Zogby International’s John Zogby: “I’m not sure that I will ever
believe an exit poll again … How could they have been so way off?
They were worse than virtually every pre-election poll.” (John Cook,
“Early Exit Polls Overstated Kerry Results, Media Group Says,”
Chicago Tribune, 1/20/05)
Zogby: “The sum total of what we got today is enough to suggest that
there should never be exit polls again.” (Donald Lambro, “Polling
Firms Blame Youth, Leaks For Errors,” The Washington Times, 1/20/05)
The Washington Post’s Director Of Polling Richard Morin: “[T]he 2004
election may have finally stripped exit polling of its reputation as
the crown jewel of political surveys, somehow immune from the myriad
problems that affect telephone polls and other types of public
opinion surveys.” (Richard Morin, Op-Ed, “Surveying The Damage,” The
Washington Post, 11/21/04)
Morin: “Instead, this face-to-face, catch-the-voters-on-the-way-out
poll has been revealed for what it is: just another poll, with all
the problems and imperfections endemic to the craft.” (Richard Morin,
Op-Ed, “Surveying The Damage,” The Washington Post, 11/21/04)
President Of Mason-Dixon Polling Firm Brad Corker: “Exit Polls Are
Often Wrong”. “[B]rad Coker, president of the Mason-Dixon polling
firm that called Bush’s 2.5-percentage-point win in Ohio practically
right on the nose for The Plain Dealer, says … exit polls are often
wrong.” (Ted Diadiun, “Rest Assured, We Checked Out Election 2004
Thoroughly,” The [Cleveland] Plain Dealer, 6/18/06)
“Herb Asher, An Ohio State University Political Scientist, Said
Election Results Don’t Necessarily Reflect Exit Polls.” (John Nolan,
“Forty Voters Want November Election Results Thrown Out,” The
Associated Press, 12/14/04)
Asher: “We all know that exit polls can be wrong. Exit polls are
basically a sample.” (John Nolan, “Forty Voters Want November
Election Results Thrown Out,” The Associated Press, 12/14/04)
CNN’s Bill Schneider: “The lesson here is put not your faith in exit
polls … particularly if the exit poll is close … Exit polls are
designed for analysis. … They are not very good …” (William
Douglas, “Turnout: The Early Exit Polls Mostly Wrong,” Detroit Free
Press, 11/4/04)
Then-CNN Anchor Judy Woodruff: “People want to jump on (exit polls)
because they are the first little sliver, little shred of
evidence … It’s dangerous to seize on those numbers and assume
anything - and yet that’s what happened.” (Michelle Mittelstadt,
“Exit Poll Group Assailed For Erroneous Early Results,” The Dallas
Morning News, 11/4/04)
Pollster Andrew Kohut: “[D]oing [exit polls] on the fly has led us
astray.” (Michelle Mittelstadt, “Exit Poll Group Assailed For
Erroneous Early Results,” The Dallas Morning News, 11/4/04)
EXIT POLLS WERE ALSO WIDELY INACCURATE IN 2002 AND 2000 ELECTIONS
FLASHBACK FACT: In 2002 Midterms, Exit Polls Were Scrapped Due To
Inaccuracy:
VNS Consortium Scrapped 2002 National Exit Polls Because It Could Not
Guarantee Accuracy. “Voter News Service abandoned its state and
national exit poll plans for Election Night, saying it could not
guarantee the accuracy of the analysis which media organizations use
to help explain why people voted as they did.” (”VNS Abandons
National Exit Poll Operation, A Setback For Revamped Elections
System,” The Associated Press, 11/6/02)
“The Exit Poll Failure Was A Major Setback For VNS - A Consortium
Consisting Of ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox And The AP. VNS Had Completely
Rebuilt Its System In Response To The 2000 Election, When Television
Networks Twice Used Its Information To Make Wrong Calls In The
Decisive Florida Vote For The Presidential Election.” (”VNS Abandons
National Exit Poll Operation, A Setback For Revamped Elections
System,” The Associated Press, 11/6/02)
Zogby International’s John Zogby: “The early [2002] exit-poll data
was awful. … And it came with the caveat that it was unreliable.
Can you imagine a doctor saying that about a diagnosis? What a
mess!” (Beth Gillin, “Media Organizations Discuss What Went Wrong
With Exit-Poll Service,” The Philadelphia Inquirer, 11/7/02)
FLASHBACK FACT: In 2000 Presidential Campaign, Exit Polls Were Badly
Flawed In Critical State Of Florida:
In 2000, Exit Polls Were Badly Flawed In Critical State Of Florida.
“[S]ome bad assumptions led Voter News Service, the television
network exit poll consortium, to make and then retract two dramatic
election-night predictions on the winner of the presidential race in
Florida.” (Richard Morin and Claudia Deane, “Why The Fla. Exit Polls
Were Wrong,” The Washington Post, 11/8/00)
Networks Blame Incorrect Projections On Erroneous Exit Polling. “[The
networks] concluded the problems were largely due to bad information
supplied by Voter News Service, an exit poll consortium run by
television networks and Associated Press.” (Elizabeth Jensen and
Megan Garvey, “TV Election Gaffes Called Statistical, Not Political,”
Los Angeles Times, 2/9/01)
CBS’ Director Of Surveys Kathy Frankovic: “In the Tampa area, the
exit poll results from the [sample] precincts turned out to be more
Democratic than the vote turned out to be.” (Richard Morin and
Claudia Deane, “Why The Fla. Exit Polls Were Wrong,” The Washington
Post, 11/8/00)
Experts Lament Exit Polling’s “Poor” Predictions In 2000. “Paul
Biemer, a statistician hired to review the VNS methodology, reported
that 49 percent of those surveyed leaving the polls declined to
respond. In the parlance of his trade, Mr. Biemer said ‘a non-
response rate of this magnitude is a potential source of statistical
bias in the model projections …’ In other words, exit polls are
poor predictors.” (Jules Witcover, Op-Ed, “Voters Don’t Need Instant
TV Results,” The [Baltimore, MD] Sun, 2/16/01)
Faulty Media Reports In 2000 Impacted Florida Panhandle And
Congressional Races:
“About 7:50 P.M. EST Tuesday, Less Than An Hour After Most Of The
Polls Closed In Florida, Both CBS And NBC Declared Mr. Gore The
Winner In That State, A Decision Based Largely Upon Exit Polls
Conducted By Voter News Service. Fox News, CNN And ABC Followed
Within Minutes.” (John Godfrey, “Tauzin Plans Hearings On Gaffe,” The
Washington Times, 11/10/00)
“A Survey Conducted By John McLaughlin & Associates Found That The
Early And Incorrect News Network Announcements Declaring Al Gore The
Winner In Florida May Have Influenced Thousands Of Last-Minute Voters
In The Central Time Zone Section Of The Florida Panhandle Not To
Vote. The Premature Announcement Discouraged Many Registered Voters
Who, According To [The] Survey’s Results, Would Have Voted Like The
Rest Of Their Neighbors - Overwhelmingly For George W.
Bush.” (McLaughlin & Associates Website, “Panhandle Poll Summary,”
www.mclaughlinonline.com, Press Release, 11/20/00)