CFR: Chavez no real threat, ignore his rhetoric
NEWS RELEASE Council on Foreign Relations
November 27, 2006
United States Should Ignore Hugo Chavez’s “Blustery Rhetoric,” Argues
New Council Report
“Chávez’s bark…is far worse than his bite,” says a new Council
Special Report, which urges U.S. officials to “look beyond his
blustery rhetoric…as long as Chávez does not take steps that
fundamentally threaten essential U.S. interests in Latin America.”
With polls showing Chávez strongly in the lead in the upcoming
December 3 Venezuelan presidential election, the United States needs
to prepare for another six-year term with the controversial leader.
In the short term, “the United States should be seen in the region as
ignoring Chávez’s theatrics and seeking to work pragmatically on
issues of bilateral and regional concern,” such as energy policies
and poverty reduction. By doing so, “Washington wins either way—
whether Chávez accepts or rejects the American ‘peace’ overture. Such
a practical approach, even if it fails to yield significant results,
may make Latin American governments more willing to work with the
United States collaboratively in an effort to establish a clear set
of boundaries that Venezuela will not be permitted to cross.”
“Despite Chávez’s tendency to publicly insult American leaders and
whip up anti-American sentiment, the United States and Venezuela
remain mutually dependent. Chávez relies on U.S. oil demand to
sustain the Venezuelan economy; roughly 60 percent of Venezuelan oil
exports are destined for the United States.” In turn, 11 percent of
U.S. oil imports come from Venezuela.
The report, Living with Hugo: U.S. Policy Toward Hugo Chávez’s Latin
America, was produced by the Council’s Center for Preventive Action
and written by the Financial Times’ Richard Lapper.
In the long term, “the United States needs to tackle the underlying
problems of inequality and poverty that feed Chávez’s appeal.
Restoring U.S. leadership will require a significant shift in how the
United States articulates its vision for the Andean region and Latin
America as a whole. It is imperative that American government
officials begin to directly and openly acknowledge the profound
social schisms that most Latin Americans face each day,” says Lapper.
While acknowledging that the United States has a limited set of
options, Living with Hugo outlines a series of proactive policy
recommendations intended to increase U.S. legitimacy in the region,
and thereby indirectly countering Chávez’s appeal.
Bilateral Issues
– Although Chávez’s anti-American rhetoric may be more beneficial to
him than the benefits of working bilaterally with the United States,
“it may still be possible to pursue a pragmatic relationship with
Venezuela….After the December 2006 presidential election, the Bush
administration should offer to hold working-level discussions with
Venezuelan officials on a range of specific bilateral issues, such as
border security, energy, drugs, and public health. This gesture from
Washington would help demonstrate to the region that the United
States is trying to work pragmatically with Caracas, despite Chávez’s
rhetoric.”
Rhetoric and Regime Change
– The Venezuelan opposition, at this point, does not seem strong
enough to unseat Chávez, “through either legal or extra-legal
means. …The Bush administration and its successor should make
crystal clear that the United States has no intention of intervening
forcibly in Venezuela, either overtly or covertly. …All U.S.
officials of the executive branch should join the State Department in
continuing to moderate the rhetoric used to characterize Venezuela,
its head of state, and public officials.”
– The United States should be seen as a neutral party in the
upcoming presidential election. The “[United States Agency for
International Development], [National Democratic Institute],
[International Republican Institute], and all of their grantees in
and outside of Venezuela, must be subject to scrupulous oversight and
scrutiny in order to guarantee the nonpartisan nature and
constitutional commitments of their activities in Venezuela.”
Regional Dialogue
– Chávez’s influence in Latin America has grown over the years and
he has not been secretive about his desire to expand this influence.
However, “more consolidated democratic and nationalist political
cultures in Latin America, especially in countries such as Brazil,
Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay, are generally resistant to the crude
populist appeal and interventionist tactics of Chávez. …As long as
the United States is seen to covertly support opposition groups and
promote regime change in Venezuela, U.S. denunciations of Chávez’s
own regional activities will ring hollow.”
– Venezuelan ties with Iranian leaders have become increasingly
active, yet the notion that Chávez could, as a result, ignite violent
conflict in the Western Hemisphere should not be exaggerated. “Chávez
risks alienating those Latin American allies whose cooperation and
support are more vital to his hemispheric project. …The United
States should seek the support of other Latin American governments in
order to warn Chávez to keep his flirtation with Tehran within
acceptable limits, such as excluding military or nuclear cooperation.”
Full text of the report is available on the Council’s website:
www.cfr.org/venezuela
Council Special Reports (CSRs) are concise policy briefs that provide
timely responses to developing crises or contribute to debates on
current policy dilemmas. CSRs are written by individual authors in
consultation with an advisory committee. The content of the reports
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About the author:
Richard Lapper has been Latin America editor at the Financial Times
since May 1998, where he guides its coverage on Latin America both in
the newspaper and on-line. He writes most of the Financial Times’
editorials on the region and edits, often writes “Latin America
Agenda,” a weekly on-line analytical column, and contributes
frequently to the newspaper’s features pages. He has had a long
association with Latin America, making his debut in journalism in
1980 as a Central America correspondent with the London-based Latin
America Newsletter, subsequently writing on a wide range of
development and financial issues for publications including the
Economist Intelligence Unit, South Magazine, and Caribbean Insight.
Richard is currently based in Sao Paulo, Brazil, but travels
frequently within the region and in the United States.