Gallup polls Ecuador: yeah, something’s happening
November 28, 2006
Ecuadorians Elect Correa Amid Extreme Frustration
U.S.-trained technocrat raises anti-corruption, anti-U.S. banners and
connects with a disillusioned populace
by Jesus Rios GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
After a decade of political instability in which seven presidents
have come and gone amid coups, violent street protests, and
congressional impeachments, Ecuadorians went to the polls Sunday and
elected leftist technocrat Rafael Correa.
Before the election, Ecuadorians had grown apathetic and
disillusioned with a political establishment that has chronically
failed to contain the country’s widespread poverty and inequity. A
Gallup World Poll conducted last May indicates that the overwhelming
majority of the country’s residents, 92%, believe corruption is
widespread in their government. (The average across all 18 Latin
American countries* studied is significantly lower, at 71%.)
Similarly, just 12% of Ecuadorians say they have confidence in the
country’s national government.
Correa, a new face in Ecuadorian politics, appealed to that
disillusionment, placing corruption eradication at the core of his
electoral campaign. As recently as October, the Ecuadorian electorate
appeared fragmented and the race unpredictable. The election’s first
round on October 15 resulted in a technical tie that forced Sunday’s
run-off between Correa and populist banana magnate Alvaro Noboa.
However, Correa appears to have won the run-off handily, with well
over 50% of the vote by early estimates.
Key Issues
Most fundamentally, Ecuadorians are looking for a way out of poverty.
They are significantly less satisfied than neighboring populations in
Latin America with regard to their government’s efforts to deal with
the poor — just 19% say they are satisfied in Ecuador, compared with
an average of 35% for all Latin American countries. Similarly, only
17% of Ecuadorians say they are satisfied with efforts to increase
the number and quality of jobs in the country.
Correa’s nationalist and openly anti-U.S. stance may have also helped
him connect with the populace. Correa has indicated he will not renew
the contract whereby the United States maintains anti-drug operations
at a military base in the port city of Manta. What’s more, he has
made no secret of his admiration for Venezuelan President Hugo
Chavez, and that he shares Chavez’s contempt for U.S. President
George W. Bush. Chavez is relatively well-liked in Ecuador — 35% of
the people say they approve of Venezuela’s leadership, compared to
22% of residents across all Latin American countries. By contrast,
only 26% of Ecuadorians say they approve of the leadership in the
United States, a figure that is similar to the regional result of 24%.
Correa is also opposed to continuing negotiations for a free trade
agreement with the United States. Ecuadorians who indicated that they
were aware of the initiative were asked whether they supported it.
Just 30% did so, vs. an average of 42% for all Latin American
countries.**
These poll results reflect important aspects of the dynamics driving
political outcomes in a region where Chavez has launched a campaign
to weaken U.S. influence. But perhaps more importantly, they
demonstrate why Correa was able to strike a chord with the Ecuadorian
people: Impoverished Latin Americans are growing increasingly averse
to their countries’ political establishment and are willing to
embrace outsiders who connect with their aspirations for social
justice, challenge the status quo, and break with the leadership of
the past.
Survey Methods
Results are based on in-person interviews with 1,067 Ecuadorian
adults, aged 15 and older, conducted in May 2006. For results based
on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95%
confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage
points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into
the findings of public opinion polls.
- The 18 Latin American countries surveyed include Argentina,
Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic,
Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama,
Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela.
** This comparison figure is based on opinions in 18 Latin American
countries about the free-trade agreement initiatives led by the
United States that are applicable to the respective country. Costa
Ricans, Hondurans, Guatemalans, El Salvadorans, Nicaraguans, and
Dominicans were asked about the DR-CAFTA; Brazilians, Mexicans,
Venezuelans, Uruguayans, Paraguayans, Argentines, Chileans, and
Bolivians were asked their opinions about the FTAA; and Colombians,
Panamanians, Ecuadorians, and Peruvians were asked their opinions
about their existing (or proposed) bilateral free trade agreements
with the United States. All these treaties have in common the fact
that they are U.S.-led trade liberalization initiatives and,
therefore, are believed to generate comparable reactions and
attitudes across Latin America.