Bush plan goes over like lead balloon; many not sure it’s worth a fight
ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: THE IRAQ ADDRESS – 1/10/07 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 7 a.m. Thursday, Jan. 11, 2007
Six in 10 Oppose Troop Surge in Iraq; Most Doubt it’ll Speed an End
to War
Americans broadly reject George W. Bush’s plan for a surge of U.S.
forces into Iraq, with substantial majorities dismissing his
arguments that it’ll end the war more quickly and increase the odds
of victory, an ABC News/Washington Post poll finds.
Indeed, rather than Bush bolstering public confidence, the national
survey, conducted after his address to the nation on his new Iraq
strategy, finds that a new high – 57 percent – think the United
States is losing the war. Just 29 percent think it’s winning.
These and other results underscore the depth of the challenge Bush
faces in reversing public skepticism on Iraq. Sixty-one percent of
Americans oppose his proposal to send more than 20,000 additional
U.S. military forces there; 36 percent support it. Fifty-eight
percent continue to say the war was not worth fighting, essentially
unchanged from a month ago. Sixty-four percent disapprove of how he’s
handling the situation.
Barely three in 10 accept Bush’s assertion that a troop increase now
will end the war more quickly; instead two-thirds think it won’t make
much difference in the length of the conflict (48 percent) or instead
will prolong it (19 percent). Similarly, while 36 percent think the
surge will make victory more likely, more than six in 10 say it
either won’t change the odds of victory (53 percent) or will even
make them worse (10 percent).
Intensity of sentiment, as well, is heavily against Bush. Just a
quarter of Americans “strongly” support his proposal to send
additional forces to Iraq; by contrast twice as many, 52 percent,
strongly oppose it.
Nor do most Americans express faith in the Iraqi government, whose
performance Bush portrayed as central in his strategy. Fifty-seven
percent say they’re not confident in the ability of the Iraqi
government to meet its commitments in the effort to restore civil
order. Seven in 10, moreover, say U.S. military and economic aid to
the Iraqis should be tied to their meeting performance benchmarks in
stabilizing the country politically and economically – a requirement
Bush himself did not propose. Notably, agreement on this question
crosses partisan lines – about seven in 10 Republicans, Democrats and
independents alike agree on tying aid to performance by the Iraqi
government.
Partisanship is rife elsewhere. On the surge, for example, 73 percent
of Republicans are in favor; that dives to 39 percent of
independents, and a mere six percent of Democrats.
FIGHT? – Not everyone is spoiling for a political fight in
Washington: While just over six in 10 Americans oppose the surge,
somewhat fewer, 53 percent, think the Democrats in Congress should
try to block it; instead 44 percent think they should stand aside.
That’s because independents, who’re more apt to shun political
battles, divide almost evenly on this question, while Democrats and
Republicans are diametrically opposed. The Democrats also have a
lessened advantage over Bush in overall trust to handle the situation
in Iraq – a 47-36 percent lead, down from 56-32 percent in their post-
election high last month. More, 12 percent, instead now say they
don’t trust either party to deal with the situation – perhaps a
reflection of frustration with the available options.
AUDIENCE – In perhaps another sign of fatigue, Bush’s audience –
while broad by any standard – was far below his peak. Forty-two
percent say they watched or listened to any of his speech last night.
By contrast, 72 percent watched his address on March 17, 2003,
announcing a two-day deadline for the start of the war.
As is often the case, people who tuned in to the address last night
were more favorably inclined toward Bush’s proposals. In general,
supporters are more apt to watch policy addresses, while opponents
are more likely to find something else to do. In this case, for
instance, about half of Republicans tuned in, compared with 37
percent of Democrats. And the speech attracted 54 percent of Bush
approvers on Iraq, but just 35 percent of disapprovers.
BETTER – A few trends are somewhat better for Bush than the overall
views on his plan. Approval of his handling of the situation in Iraq
is up by six points from last month, albeit just to 34 percent, and
“strong” approval is up by nine points. But strong disapprovers still
vastly outnumber strong approvers, 50 percent to 21 percent.
Also, the public divides about evenly on Bush’s position that victory
in Iraq is required for success in the war on terrorism more broadly:
Forty-five percent accept this argument, while 47 percent reject it.
This line of argument looks likes Bush’s best prospect; among people
who believe victory in Iraq is necessary, 66 percent support his
proposed troop surge. Among those who say the war on terrorism can be
won without victory in Iraq, by contrast, 87 percent oppose the surge.
One final result indicates that critics’ use of language sometimes
associated with the Vietnam war – such as “escalation” – hasn’t
influenced perceptions that the Iraq war will turn into a Vietnam-
style involvement for the United States. Forty-four percent of
Americans see another Vietnam in Iraq, but that’s essentially
unchanged from this fall, and indeed from its level a year and a half
ago.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by
telephone Jan. 10, 2007, among a random national sample of 502
adults. The results have a 4.5- point error margin. Sampling, data
collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary
Langer.
ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at http://abcnews.com/ pollvault.html.