ABC poll: majority of Americans now favor an Iraq deadline
[all the more reason to bomb Iran?]
ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: IRAQ and POLITICS =96 2/25/07 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Monday, Feb. 26, 2007
Disapproval on Iraq Hits a Record; More than Half Favor a Deadline
A record number of Americans disapprove of the war in Iraq and a =
clear majority now favors the eventual withdrawal of U.S. forces even =
if civil order has not been restored there =96 potentially a tipping =
point in public attitudes on the war.
While solutions remain vexing, for the first time in ABC News/ =
Washington Post polls a narrow majority of Americans supports setting =
a deadline for the withdrawal of U.S. forces. Two-thirds oppose =
George W. Bush’s troop surge; most, strongly so.
It all makes for a continued hard slog for the president: Just 36 =
percent approve of his job performance overall, very near his career =
low 33 percent last month. Bush hasn’t seen majority approval in more =
than two years =96 the longest run without majority support for any =
president since Harry Truman from 1950-53.
While rooted in Iraq, Bush’s problems with credibility and confidence =
reach beyond it. Sixty-three percent of Americans don’t trust the =
administration to convey intelligence reports on potential threats =
from other countries honestly and accurately. And 58 percent lack =
confidence, specifically, in its ability to handle current tensions =
with Iran.
IRAQ =96 Bush is paying the continued price of an unpopular war. Sixty- =
four percent now say the war in Iraq was not worth fighting, up six =
points from last month to a new high numerically. (It was 63 percent =
in October). A majority hasn’t said the war was worth fighting since =
April 2004, and it’s been even longer since a majority has approved =
of how Bush is handling it. Sixty-seven percent now disapprove, 55 =
percent strongly.
In a fundamental change, 56 percent now say U.S. forces should be =
withdrawn at some point even if civil order has not been restored in =
Iraq. That represents a continued, gradual departure from the “you =
break it, you’ve bought it” sentiment that until now has mitigated in =
favor of continued U.S. involvement until some stability is attained.
Another part of this change has been a shift in views on setting a =
withdrawal date. Given pro-and-con positions (avoiding casualties vs. =
encouraging insurgents), support for a deadline has risen from 39 =
percent in late 2005 to 47 percent last summer and 53 percent now. =
That’s a majority, but not a large one; 46 percent still are opposed =
to a deadline, underscoring the difficulty of finding consensus on =
how to get out of Iraq.
Among those who do support a deadline, 85 percent say it should be =
within the next year (including 46 percent who say it should be =
within the next six months), essentially unchanged from previous =
polls. (Questions on troop withdrawal deadlines depend on the options =
offered.)
BLAME =96 These views are accompanied by a broad sense that the main =
blame for failing to control the violence in Iraq rests with its own =
government (70 percent say so), not the United States (18 percent). =
Indeed two-thirds favor reducing U.S. military and financial support =
if the Iraqis fail to make progress restoring order =96 one of the =
popular steps proposed by the Iraq Study Group in December, but not =
taken up by Bush. (Another is the group’s proposal for a shift to a =
military training mission, with most U.S. combat forces withdrawn by =
early 2008; at the time of the proposal, 69 percent supported it.)
DEMOCRATS =96 The Democrats in Congress continue to holds the upper =
hand on Iraq (as well as more generally) =96 but slightly less so than =
last month. Then 60 percent of Americans trusted the Democrats over =
Bush to handle the war; today it’s 54 percent. The current political =
wrangling over Iraq may be a cause, as well as an almost inevitable =
comedown from the Democrats’ election victory in November. While 50 =
percent still approve of Nancy Pelosi’s work as House speaker, her =
disapproval is up by six points, to 31 percent. (Comparing powerful =
Washington women, she’s bettered by Secretary of State Condoleezza =
Rice, with 58 percent approval. Both vastly outshine Bush.)
One Democratic proposal on Iraq, to block Bush’s surge by changing =
troop rotation rules, wins 58 percent support. But another =96 =
restricting funding for the war in an effort to block the surge =96 is =
more divisive, with 46 percent in favor and a slim majority, 51 =
percent, opposed. Military funding is sensitive with troops in the =
field.
The Democrats continue to lead Bush in other areas as well =96 =
including a 52-39 percent advantage in trust to handle terrorism =
(once Bush’s cornerstone issue, a majority has disapproved of his =
work on terrorism steadily since October). The Democrats lead by =
wider margins in trust to handle the economy, despite its relatively =
good condition; the federal budget; and health care, with no gain for =
Bush from his State of the Union proposal to move health insurance =
tax breaks from corporations to individuals.
IRAN =96 The public divides about evenly on whether or not the =
administration has solid evidence that Iran is supporting insurgent =
attacks on U.S. forces. As noted, though, more broadly, 63 percent =
don’t trust the administration to report intelligence on threats from =
foreign nations honestly and accurately. That lack of trust can make =
it very hard to marshal public support when needed.
Nearly six in 10 also say they’re not confident the administration =
will do a good job handling tensions with Iran. Just 11 percent are =
very confident it will handle this issue well; three times as many, =
34 percent, are not confident at all.
Underscoring his problems, even among Republicans, just 28 percent =
are very confident in Bush’s ability to deal with Iran, while among =
Democrats, 55 percent have no confidence whatsoever.
AFGHANISTAN =96 Views on the war in Afghanistan stand in contrast to =
those on Iraq. A majority of Americans, 56 percent, say the war in =
Afghanistan was worth fighting, 22 points more than say that about =
the Iraq war.
But given broader, negative sentiment, there’s hardly robust support =
for expanded U.S. commitment in Afghanistan: Six in 10 say the United =
States is “doing enough” to help rebuild that county. If there’s a =
strong case for expanded U.S. support for Afghanistan, as the =
administration has proposed, most Americans haven’t been persuaded.
HISTORY =96 As noted, Bush hasn’t received majority approval in any ABC/ =
Post poll in the last two years =96 specifically in 25 months, since =
Jan. 16, 2005. Compared to ABC/Post polls since the Reagan =
presidency, and Gallup polls before them, that’s the longest run with =
less than majority approval for any president since Truman.
Longest Stretches Below Majority Approval
President From To Length
G.W. Bush 1/05 present 25 months
Clinton 5/93 8/93 3
G.H.W. Bush 12/91 12/92 12
Reagan 6/82 4/83 10
Carter 1/79 11/79 10
Ford 8/75 6/76 10
Nixon 4/73 8/74 16
Johnson 7/67 1/69 18
Kennedy 0
Eisenhower 0
Truman 1/50 12/52 36
Bush to Reagan, ABC/Post polls; Carter to Truman, Gallup
DEPTH =96 It’s worth noting not just the length and breadth but also =
the continued depth of Bush’s unpopularity. Barely two in 10 =
Americans (19 percent) strongly approve of his job performance, while =
49 percent strongly disapprove.
As noted, 55 percent strongly disapprove of his work on Iraq, while =
just 17 percent strongly approve. And in a more personal measure, 29 =
percent are “angry” about the administration’s work in Iraq, while =
just seven percent are pleased.
GROUPS =96 Beyond customary partisanship, there are other sharp =
differences between groups, though partisanship fuels some of them. =
Among blacks, for example, just nine percent approve of Bush’s job =
performance, and just 11 percent say that, given its costs versus =
benefits, the war was worth fighting. This is largely (but not =
exclusively) because blacks overwhelmingly are Democrats. (Among =
Democrats, eight percent approve of Bush, and the same number call =
the war worth fighting.)
In addition to blacks, sentiment against the war peaks among women =
and young adults. Sixty-three percent of women and 67 percent of =
people under 30 favor withdrawing U.S. forces even if civil order is =
not restored. Many fewer men (48 percent) or older adults (53 =
percent) agree.
METHODOLOGY =96 This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by =
telephone Feb. 22-25, 2007, among a random national sample 1,082 =
adults, including an oversample of black respondents. The results =
have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and =
tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.
Analysis by Gary Langer.