Doug Henwood Talks

abortion poll

ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: ABORTION EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6 a.m. Friday, March 9, 2007 Views on Abortion Grow Less Polarized

Public opinion on abortion has taken a gradual and surprising turn =96 =

toward moderation. Basic opinions are unchanged: Fifty-six percent of =

Americans say abortion should be generally legal and 42 percent say =

it should be generally illegal, almost precisely matching the =

averages in ABC News/Washington Post polls since 1995. But more now =

take the middle two positions =96 that abortion should be legal in most =

cases, but not all; or illegal in most cases, but not all. Seventy =

percent take one of those two views, the most ever =96 39 percent on =

the “mostly legal” side, 31 percent “mostly illegal.”

That leaves 28 percent who now take the more extreme positions =96 that =

abortion should be legal or illegal in all cases (16 and 12 percent, =

respectively) =96 the fewest ever in ABC/Post polls, down from a high =

of 43 percent in 2004, and nine points below the long- term average.

The number of Americans who say abortion should be legal in all =

cases, 16 percent, is down 11 points from its peak of 27 percent in =

At the same time, the 12 percent who say abortion should be =

flatly illegal is down eight points from its high, 20 percent in 2001 =

and 2004. As these have fallen, “mostly legal” and “mostly illegal” =

responses have risen.

GROUPS =96 The trend toward the middle since 2004 has occurred =

disproportionately among some groups, including women, evangelical =

white Protestants and Catholics.

Women and men have essentially the same views on abortion =96 at the =

extreme and moderate positions alike =96 and both have shifted toward =

the center. Among women, compared to mid-2004, 19 percent fewer now =

take one of the two more extreme positions =96 that abortion should be =

legal in all cases (now 17 percent, down from 26 percent) or that it =

should always be illegal (now 11 percent, down from 21 percent.)

The change among men has been less pronounced, with 12 percent fewer =

taking either more extreme stance. Twelve percent of men say abortion =

should be illegal in all cases, down from 20 percent; and 16 percent =

say it should be legal in all cases, compared with 20 percent in 2004.

                                Women         Men
                              Now   2004   Now   2004
       Legal in all cases     17%    26    16     20
       Illegal in all cases   11     21    12     20

RELIGION =96 Evangelical white Protestants, the most broadly anti- =

abortion group, also have moved toward the center: Fifteen percent =

now say abortion should be illegal in all cases, down from 31 percent =

in 2004.

Among Catholics, preference for abortion to be legal in all cases has =

declined from 26 percent in 2004 to 10 percent now =96 with a =

corresponding rise in the number who say it should be legal in most =

cases, but not all.

                          Evangelical white
                             Protestants      Catholics
                              Now   2004      Now   2004
       Legal in all cases      6%    11       10     26
       Illegal in all cases   15     31       13     17

PARTY =96 While partisan differences remain sharp, there is a trend =

toward moderation on both sides of the aisle. Democrats are more =

likely than Republicans to think abortion should be legal in all =

cases (22 percent vs. nine percent) or most cases (45 percent vs. 30 =

percent), while Republicans are almost twice as likely to say =

abortion should be illegal in most (40 percent vs. 21 percent) or all =

(18 percent vs. 10 percent) cases.

But the 45 percent of Democrats who now say abortion should be legal =

in most, not all, cases is up from 35 percent since mid-2004, and the =

number of Republicans who say it should be illegal in most but not =

all cases is now 40 percent, up from 32 percent.

                              Democrats    Republicans
                              Now   2004   Now   2004
       Legal in all cases     22%    27     9     14
       Illegal in all cases   10     19    18     26

RATIONALES =96 No single poll question can capture the complexity of =

views on abortion, and there’s plenty to explore in what “mostly” =

legal or illegal should mean. Previous ABC/Post polls have shown that =

attitudes on abortion are heavily dependent on rationales, with broad =

support for legal abortion in some instances (e.g., when the woman’s =

life or health are in danger) but majority opposition in others =96 =

notably, when abortions are done solely to end an unwanted pregnancy.

At the same time, in an ABC/Post poll in 2005, 61 percent said they =

wanted to see the Supreme Court uphold Roe vs. Wade, the decision =

that established current abortion law. And while 42 percent wanted =

the court to make abortions harder to get than they are now, the rest =

wanted the availability of abortions the same (45 percent) or less =

restricted (11 percent).

How abortion plays out in the 2008 presidential campaign =96 and =

whether the campaign itself increases polarization on the issue =96 =

remain to be seen. But the issue could be a contentious one =

particularly in the Republican primaries; 46 percent of Republicans =

say ts who now say abortion should be legal in most, not all, cases =

is up from 35 percent since mid-2004, and the number of Republicans =

who say it should be illegal in most but not all cases is now 40 =

percent, up from 32 percent.

                              Democrats    Republicans
                              Now   2004   Now   2004
       Legal in all cases     22%    27     9     14
       Illegal in all cases   10     19    18     26