Re: Output Falling in Oil-Rich Mexico, and Politics Get the Blame
On Mar 12, 2007, at 11:29 AM, Miles Jackson wrote:
This is pretty rich: Hubbert used his model in the 1950s to correctly predict the peak of U. S. oil production in the 1970s! Economists’ misconceptions notwithstanding, it turns out you can effectively
predict the future with a well-specified regression model.
As I recall the finance literature, there’s not enough of a history
to state authoritatively that stock returns are significantly
different from zero over the long term. Since we’ve had stock markets
for several centuries, that’s a lot of data that still falls short of
significance. So how can we generalize from Hubbert’s n=1?
Doug