Re: Output Falling in Oil-Rich Mexico, and Politics Get the Blame
On Mar 12, 2007, at 3:22 PM, Yoshie Furuhashi wrote:
On 3/12/07, Julio Huato juliohuato@gmail.com wrote:
The future is not a replica of the past.
Right. But the question is, will global capitalism stay in business? If the answer is yes, it is safe to bet that oil consumption at the global level will continue to rise into the foreseeable future: “In the IEO2006 reference case, world oil demand grows from 80 million barrels per day in 2003 to 98 million barrels per day in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day in 2030. Demand increases strongly despite world oil prices that are 35 percent higher in 2025 than in last year’s outlook. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the nations of non-OECD Asia, where strong economic growth is expected. Non-OECD Asia (including China and India) accounts for 43 percent of the total increase in world oil use over the projection period” (”International Energy Outlook 2006,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html).
“By ‘uncertain’ knowledge, let me explain, I do not mean merely to
distinguish what is known for certain from what is only probable. The
game of roulette is not subject, in this sense, to uncertainty; nor
is the prospect of a victory bond being drawn…. Even the weather is
only moderately uncertain. The sense in which I am using the term is
that in which the prospect of a European war is uncertain, or the
price of copper and the rate of interest twenty years hence, or the
obsolescence of a new invention, or the position of private wealth-
owners in the social system in 1970. About these matters there is no
scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability
whatever. We simply do not know.”
- John Maynard Keynes, "The General Theory of Employment"