Charlie Cook: the Republican ship is taking on water
http://nationaljournal.com/cook.htm
OFF TO THE RACES Trending 2008 By Charlie Cook, NationalJournal.com Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Several years ago, veteran Republican political consultant Eddie Mahe
would periodically prepare a memo for his political and public
affairs clients.
The situation in Iraq has begun to structurally damage the GOP in
ways that might have consequences that go beyond just the 2008
general election.
His memo was a veritable tour de force of international and domestic
political, economic, demographic and social situations and trends at
the time.
Somewhat like the Federal Reserve Board’s “Beige Book,” which
regularly provides narrative surveys of the economy in each Federal
Reserve district, Mahe’s memo would take a baseline look at the
current situation and outline certain assumptions on each of the
various fronts.
The purpose was to re-examine these assumptions three, six or 12
months later and identify changes, if there were any. Mahe kept a
lookout for any shifts and then analyzed the political and policy
implications of changes that occurred after the baseline assumptions
memo was prepared.
While this is the kind of analytical exercise that often causes
younger political operatives and observers to roll their eyes in
boredom, many more seasoned political aficionados see a value. They
know that many of these changes can go unnoticed or be
underappreciated, and that these adjustments can have electoral or
policy implications.
Obviously, no one knows what the future will hold. No one knows what
the situation will be in Iraq just over 19 months from now, when the
2008 general election will be held. Nor can anyone be certain of what
the U.S. economy will be like then. Forget 19 months from now — no
one can predict what the situation will yield in three months.
The congressional and presidential campaigns will continue to unfold
amid the ever-changing economic and political situation.
What we know now is that the situation today in Iraq is, politically
speaking, devastating for the Republican Party. It has begun to
structurally damage the GOP and that damage might have consequences
that go beyond just the 2008 general election.
Just take a look at shifts in party identification numbers over the
last three years, as measured by Gallup. People identifying
themselves as Democrats have opened up an advantage over those
identifying themselves as Republicans. And when independents who lean
toward one party or another are mixed in, the lead Democrats have
over Republicans grows to its widest margin since Gallup started
measuring party identification in 1991.
If things in Iraq remain as they are today, it’s hard to see how
Republicans can hold the White House, regardless of their nominee for
president. Furthermore, it would be a steep uphill battle for
Republicans to recapture the congressional majorities they lost in 2006.
But this also begs the question: What if the situation in Iraq is
different? What if the increased U.S. troop presence in Iraq works?
While this is exceedingly unlikely, anything is possible.
Or what if various warring factions in Iraq decide to step back and
lie low for three or six months, reducing violence and casualties in
anticipation that the United States would reduce troop levels
significantly and eventually give them free run of the country after
the U.S. troops were reduced or gone?
Or what if President Bush relents to public and congressional
pressure, and begins reducing U.S. troop levels starting this summer?
While it might not help his popularity much, is it possible that it
would relieve some of the political damage that Republicans are
sustaining every week now?
As I said, anything is possible. Just because we know where things
stand today, and can guess the political implications if things
remain the same, it does not mean that we can accurately predict what
will happen.
Another potential factor to consider is the state of the U.S.
economy. There is considerable evidence that the economy might be
slowing. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently said
the odds were one-in-three that the U.S. economy would slip into a
recession by the end of the year.
If we were to drop into a recessionary situation, or if economic
growth drops to 1 percent or less and remains there for a sustained
period of time, what would be the political consequences? One would
be hard pressed to come up with a scenario where an economic downturn
would help Republicans. At its best, the economy will be a neutral
factor in the 2008 elections.
But the situation in Iraq has a much wider range of possible
outcomes, with most, though certainly not all, being negative for
Republican candidates.
While it is true that things could turn around, or Democrats might
overplay their hand at the helm of Congress, there is certainly angst
among party strategists about the situation. It’s not like political
observers needed any more reasons why this election campaign is one
of the most fascinating in modern history, but all of this just makes
the case even more persuasive.
– Charlie Cook is a NationalJournal.com contributing editor, weekly
columnist for National Journal magazine and the founder and publisher
of the Cook Political Report. This column also runs in
CongressDailyAM when Congress is in session. His e-mail address is
cookreport@nationaljournal.com.