rich abandoning Reps
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/451/money-walks
Money Walks
Republicans Are Losing Ground among the Affluent, Too
by Michael Dimock, Associate Director, Pew Research Center for the =
People & the Press April 12, 2007
The Republican Party has traditionally garnered it strongest backing =
among wealthier voters. But the recent overall decline in Republican =
Party affiliation nationwide has taken a toll even on GOP support =
among affluent voters. The latest Pew surveys find Democrats pulling =
even with Republicans among registered voters with annual family =
incomes in excess of roughly $135,000 per annum. Overall, while =
remarkably high voter enthusiasm is undoubtedly the key factor in the =
Democratic Party’s fundraising success in 2006 and thus far this =
year, the pool of potential campaign donors is also less tilted =
toward the GOP today than it has been in the past.
Pew Research Center surveys conducted over the past 13 years reveals =
a stark change in the party identification among the wealthiest =
voters =96 defined here as those in the top 10% of household incomes. =
In 1995, the year after the Republicans took control of the House and =
Senate, there were nearly twice as many Republicans (46%) as =
Democrats (25%) among the most affluent 10% of registered voters =
(household incomes of approximately $84,000 or more at the time). By =
comparison, there are just as many Democrats (31%) as Republicans =
(32%) among this class of voters today (household incomes of =
approximately $135,000 or more).
As has been the case nationwide, the shifting balance has had more to =
do with Republican losses than Democratic gains. Within the past two =
years, Republican Party identification has fallen nine percentage =
points among the wealthiest voters (from 41% to 32%), while =
Democratic identification is up just three points. This mirrors the =
overall pattern nationwide, which shows a sizeable decline in GOP =
identification, and only modest growth in Democratic Party =
identification. (For details, see March 22, 2007: Political Landscape =
More Favorable to Democrats.)
While much of the shifting balance among affluent voters reflects =
changes in the national mood, two important demographic changes among =
high income voters are related to the parties’ fortunes. First, =
members of minority groups constitute a greater share of high-income =
voters than at any time in the past. The proportion of top-income =
voters who are black, Hispanic, or from another racial minority =
background has doubled from 10% in 1995 to 21% today, while the =
proportion who are white has dropped from 90% to 79%.
Secondly, a greater share of top-income voters have a post-graduate =
education than in the past — 35% up from 24% in 1995. In general, =
Americans with post-graduate training are more likely to be Democrats =
than those with four-year degrees or who attended but did not =
complete college.
Despite these shifts, affluent voters remain more Republican than low- =
income voters. In the data Pew collected in the first quarter of =
2007, Democrats have a nearly three-to-one identification advantage =
(48% vs. 18% Republican) among voters earning $20,000 or less, an =
advantage that shrinks as income increases. Among voters earning =
between $40,000 and $100,000 neither party has a clear advantage, =
while Republicans have a 34% to 27% identification edge among those =
in the $100-$150,000 household income range. But at the very top — =
among the 7% of voters with household incomes of $150,000 or more — =
Democrats once again run even (33% Democrat vs. 31% Republican).
The ability of Democratic presidential candidates to out-raise the =
GOP field in the first quarter of 2007 was almost certainly driven by =
high levels of enthusiasm among Democratic voters. Throughout the =
past few months Pew surveys have consistently found that Democrats =
are tracking campaign news far more closely than are Republicans, and =
a March survey by CBS News and the New York Times showed that =
Democrats are both more satisfied with their slate of candidates and =
more optimistic about victory in 2008 than are Republicans. This is =
comparable with the high enthusiasm and optimism about the chances of =
victory that allowed the Democrats to compete with, and even exceed, =
Republican fundraising efforts in the 2006 midterm. At the same time, =
the GOP’s fading fortunes may have weakened the Republicans’ =
traditional advantage in having a broader pool of potential donors. =
This combination of factors has the potential to reshape the =
traditional expectations for fundraising in 2008.
Methodology
This analysis is based on compiled data from all Pew Research Center =
surveys conducted in each calendar year that included measures of =
income, party identification and voter registration. The top 10% =
income category is based on self-reported household income among =
registered voters who gave their income. To capture the top 10%, a =
special weight is used to adjust the relative share of voters from =
each income category. For example, in 2007 the top decile includes =
all voters reporting a household income of $150,000 or more, while =
voters reporting a household income of $100,000-$150,000 are weighted =
down to approximate the estimated cutoff of $135,000 in that year.
The 2007 estimates are based on data from five surveys conducted in =
January, February and March, with an overall sample size of 6,902 =
registered voters and an estimated sample size of 662 voters in the =
top income decile. The margin of error for this top-decile subsample =
is plus or minus 4.5%. In all previous years sample sizes are larger =
because data from the full calendar year are available for analysis.