Gallup: 10 points about US public opinion on Iraq
April 27, 2007
Gallup Poll Review: 10 Key Points About Public Opinion on Iraq
Most Americans support timetable for removing troops, oppose cutting
funding altogether
by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, Lydia Saad, and Joseph Carroll GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ — With the war in Iraq dominating U.S. news and with a
major fight looming between the White House and Congress on new
legislation that would fund the Iraq war but simultaneously call for
a timetable for troop withdrawal, the opinions of the average
American citizen are vitally important. There has been an enormous
amount of public opinion polling on Iraq since the war began in 2003,
particularly in the last several months. What follows is a brief
outline of 10 important points about the people’s views of the war.
- The Iraq war is an extremely high priority for Americans.
A wide variety of measures show that the war in Iraq is the nation’s
top problem at this point in time, and is by far the top issue with
which the public wants its elected representatives in Washington to
deal. Unless there is a significant change between now and next year,
the war is likely to be one of the top issues in the 2008
presidential and congressional elections.
Sixty-two percent of Americans rate Iraq as an “extremely important”
issue for the president and Congress, the highest of any issue tested
as this year began.
Thirty-three percent of Americans name Iraq as the “most important
problem” facing the country today, by far the most dominant issue
mentioned. Iraq has been the No. 1 issue on this question since April
2004.
Two in three Americans choose Iraq as the top priority for the
president and Congress to deal with, far and away the most frequently
mentioned issue.
- A majority of Americans say it was a mistake for the United States
to have become involved in Iraq.
Americans initially supported the war as it began in March 2003, but
by the summer of 2004, a majority said it was a mistake. Perceptions
about the war in Iraq remained volatile in 2004 and parts of 2005,
but with one exception, at least half of Americans have called
sending troops to Iraq a “mistake” since January 2006.
So far this year, an average of 57% of Americans across six polls has
said it was a mistake for the United States to send troops to Iraq.
It is important to note that opposition to the war in Iraq is not
monolithic. Support for the administration’s position on most
measures concerning the war, although a minority, ranges from the
mid-30s to the mid-40s.
- Americans perceive that the war is not going well for the United
States.
Since April 2005, a majority of Americans have said things are going
badly for the United States in Iraq, and more recently this
perception has become even more pronounced. Most Americans also doubt
the United States will win the war.
As of January 2007, 71% of Americans in a Gallup Poll said the Iraq
war is going badly, including 38% who said it is going very badly;
only 28% said it is going well. A CBS News poll conducted in mid-
April showed 66% saying the war was going badly.
Most Americans do not think the United States will win the war.
- Americans do not believe the troop surge is having a positive effect.
There are few signs so far that significant numbers of Americans
perceive that the troop surge in Iraq is making things in that
country better. The majority either say the surge is making no
difference or is making things worse.
These attitudes follow earlier poll results showing that the majority
of Americans opposed the surge before it was initiated by the
administration.
- Americans perceive that the benefits of winning the war do not
outweigh the costs involved.
With negative perceptions of the war’s progress as a backdrop, it may
not be surprising that the public sees little upside for Americans in
the cost-benefit trade-off of continuing the war.
By a nearly 2-to-1 margin, 65% to 31%, Americans say the benefits of
winning the war in Iraq to the United States are not worth the costs
the United States would have to bear in order to win it.
One attitude associated with the perception that the benefits do not
outweigh the costs is that only about a third of Americans believe
the threat of terrorism against the United States might increase if
American troops withdraw.
In an April 9-12, 2007, CBS News poll, 30% of Americans say the
threat of terrorism against the United States would increase if the
government withdrew its troops from Iraq, while 8% say the threat of
terrorism would decrease. Fifty-nine percent say there would be no
change.
At the same time, a slight majority of Americans interviewed by
Gallup in March perceived that when U.S. troops leave Iraq, insurgent
attacks in that country will increase. This apparently is not enough
of a factor to cause a majority of Americans to oppose the war.
- Most Americans support a timetable for removing troops from Iraq
within the next year, but not immediate withdrawal.
Despite their overall negativity about the war, only about one in
five Americans favor an immediate withdrawal of troops. Many of the
rest support a gradual withdrawal of troops, preferably within a
year. The majority of Americans do not favor an open-ended commitment
of troops in Iraq.
It thus follows that a wide variety of polls conducted in the last
two months indicate a majority of Americans (generally between 55%
and 60%) now support a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops by
next year.
Gallup trends show the public about evenly divided on this in 2005,
but opinion has now moved to the point at which a majority supports
the timetable.
A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll specifically included the
political entities behind each position in the current battle over
withdrawal timetable legislation, and found that Americans preferred
the timetable for withdrawal of troops as supported by the “Democrats
in Congress” over “President Bush’s” administration policy of no
timetable for withdrawal, by a 19-point margin.
- Less than a majority of Americans support cutting funding for the
war.
Although some Democrats in Congress suggested cutting funds for the
troops in Iraq as a means of forcing a change in U.S. policy, most
Americans do not support this.
As of late March 2007, 36% favored and 61% opposed denying the
funding needed to send any additional U.S. troops to Iraq. Similar
results were found in February.
- Democrats are better positioned than the Republicans on handling
the issue of Iraq.
Since 2005, the public has perceived that Democrats are better able
than Republicans to handle the issue of Iraq. Prior to this,
Americans gave the Republicans the edge. Americans also say they
trust the Democrats in Congress more than the administration when it
comes to making decisions on Iraq. But that does not mean Americans
are satisfied with the way the Democrats have handled the issue. In
February, 30% approved of the way congressional Democrats were
handling the issue, compared with a 27% approval rating for
congressional Republicans. Most also say the Democrats lack a clear
plan for handling the situation in Iraq.
- War views are highly partisan.
Views of the Iraq war are sharply divided along partisan lines.
Republicans overwhelmingly support the war; Democrats overwhelmingly
oppose it. Independents are more likely to oppose than favor the war.
Republicans generally defend the decision to send troops to Iraq: 74%
say it was not a mistake vs. 24% calling it a mistake. By a 63-point
margin (81% vs. 18%), Democrats call sending troops to Iraq a mistake.
Sixty-four percent of Republicans oppose a timetable for withdrawal
of troops from Iraq, while 81% of Democrats favor it.
Nearly half of Republicans (49%) say the recent troop surge in
Baghdad is making the situation there better, while 9% say it is
making it worse. Thirty-five percent of Republicans say it is making
no difference. Among Democrats, just 10% say the troop surge is
making the situation better, while 43% say it is making it worse and
45% say it is making no difference.
Support for past U.S. wars — including Vietnam — was not as
polarized along party lines as the current war. Gallup data from 1968
and 1969 show that 53% of Americans said it was a mistake to send
troops to Vietnam. Fifty-one percent of Democrats agreed with this
position at the time, as did 55% of independents and 56% of Republicans.
- A gender gap exists in views of the Iraq war.
There is a significant gender gap in terms of attitudes on the war.
Women are much more likely than men to say it was a mistake and to
support a timetable for removing U.S. troops. The gender gap is most
pronounced among independents and Democrats.
Sixty-two percent of women say it was a mistake to send troops to
Iraq, compared with 52% of men.
Two in three women (66%) support a timetable for removing troops from
Iraq; less than half of men (48%) agree.
Male Republicans are only slightly more likely than female
Republicans to favor keeping troops in Iraq and to oppose the idea of
a timetable. But gender plays a larger role among independents and
Democrats. Sixty-one percent of independent women support the
timetable, compared with 54% of independent men. And among Democrats,
it’s bigger still — 65% of Democratic men support the timetable,
versus an overwhelming 89% of Democratic women.