gas price “tipping point”: a little above current levels
[I saw a pundit on CNBC last week who said that polls consistently =
show the point at which Americans say that high gas prices will cause =
them to drive less is always about a quarter above present levels. =
While this poll doesn’t exactly confirm that, the results are in line =
with the “somewhat above present levels” standard. In July 2006, the =
median “tipping point” tipping point was $3.50 and the price of gas =
was just over $3.00; now it’s about $3.25, and the “tipping point” is =
$4.00. The tipping point then was about 50 cents above current levels =
- and now it’s expanded to almost 75 cents.]
ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: GAS AND ITS IMPACT EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 7 a.m. Thursday, May 24, 2007
Gas Prices Could Slam Summer Travel; Tipping Point for Daily Driving is $4.38
Three in 10 Americans say the soaring price of gasoline will keep =
them from taking a vacation road trip this summer, and the tipping =
point for most people to cut back on their routine driving is within =
sight =96 on average, a bit more than $1 a gallon away. With gas now =
averaging $3.22 for a gallon of regular unleaded, Americans on =
average say that at $4.38 they’ll significantly cut back on the =
amount of driving they do. And the median, or midpoint =96 at which =
half say they’ll take action =96 is a bit lower, $4.00, just 78 cents =
from today’s average price. Gas is up by $1.05 a gallon since February.
Another apparent impact is already at hand =96 a potentially damaging =
one for segments of the tourism industry. Twenty-nine percent of =
Americans in this ABC News/Washington Post poll say that =96 =
specifically because of the price of gasoline =96 they’re not planning =
a long-distance driving holiday this summer.
The economic impact may be broader still, reaching out across the =
retail industry that powers much of the nation’s economy. To pay the =
higher price of gas, 43 percent of Americans say they’re cutting back =
on other spending, by far the most common strategy. Half as many, 22 =
percent, are saving less, with other mentions in the single digits.
HURT and BLAME =96 None of this has people pleased. Ninety-two percent =
are dissatisfied with the price of gasoline, and more than four in 10 =
=96 43 percent =96 are downright angry about it. Fifty-eight percent say =
it’s causing financial hardship in their homes, and just over a =
quarter, 27 percent, call that “serious” hardship.
Blame falls heaviest on the nation’s oil companies, which have been =
posting record profits =96 $29.5 billion in profit in the first quarter =
of 2007, the equivalent of $222,569 a minute, or $97.71 for every =
man, woman and child in the United States. Asked the main reason gas =
prices are rising, a third of Americans blame oil companies =96 a high =
level of agreement on an open-ended question.
Fifteen percent blame the Iraq war, with other answers in the single =
digits, including seven percent who blame the Bush administration. =
Even among Democrats =96 no admirers of George W. Bush =96 three times as =
many blame the oil companies as blame the president.
IMPACT =96 The impact of $3.22 gas falls unevenly, depending heavily on =
personal resources. Gas prices are hammering less well-off Americans; =
among those with less than $25,000 in annual income (one in four =
adults), three-quarters report financial hardship, and nearly half =96 =
46 percent =96 report serious hardship.
Serious hardship drops to less than half that level, 21 percent, in =
middle-income households, and falls further, to just 13 percent, =
among people with family incomes of $75,000 or more.
People who report serious hardship are far more likely than others to =
be reducing their spending on other things in order to pay for gas =96 =
59 percent are doing so, nearly twice the rate as among those who =
report no hardship. And naturally, people experiencing hardship, =
especially serious hardship, are far more likely to be angry about =
gas prices.
Cutting back Angry about
on other spending gas prices
All 43% 43%
Gas prices a serious hardship 59 65
Gas a hardship, not serious 45 47
No hardship 32 26
SUVs =96 Contrary to conventional wisdom, SUV drivers are no more =
likely than others to report serious hardship because of gas prices, =
even though they presumably use more gas. That’s because they’re =
better-off financially, and so better able to handle the cost. In =
fact SUV drivers are more likely than car drivers to say they’re =
planning a long- distance driving vacation this summer, 39 percent to =
28 percent. Again, they can better afford it: SUV owners have median =
household incomes in the $50,000 to $75,000 range, compared with =
$30,000 to $40,000 for car drivers.
But even if SUV owners are better able to pay the price of gas, that =
doesn’t mean they’re happy about it. Fifty-three percent of SUV =
drivers say they’re angry about gas prices, compared with 42 percent =
of car drivers.
Drive:
SUV Car
Plan a long-distance
summer vacation 39% 28
Angry about gas prices 53 42
Serious financial hardship 22 29
Average price of gas to
cut back on driving $4.66 $4.44
About one in six Americans drives an SUV. About half drive cars, with =
the rest dividing among pickups, vans or minivans, and the few who =
don’t drive at all.
ADAPTING and DRIVING =96 Interestingly, the level of financial hardship =
Americans report has subsided a bit (by nine points) since mid-April, =
even as prices have continued to rise. It could be that people are =
yet again adapting, however unhappily.
Adaptation may be a necessity, given the inelasticity of driving: For =
many people it’s simply a necessity of life. As things stand, =
thinking about the weeks ahead, the vast majority of Americans say =
they’ll be driving as much as (61 percent) or even more than (12 =
percent) they usually do. Just 18 percent say they’ll be driving =
less, and just 11 percent say they’ll be driving less specifically =
because of the price of gasoline. Plans to cut driving have been far =
higher in the past =96 in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, =
50 percent said they’d be driving less; as gas prices spiked last =
spring, it was 30 percent. It dropped to 15 percent in midsummer 2006 =
and remains at about that level now =96 a further indication that =
people are adapting.
Other poll questions, asking people if they’re driving less because =
of the high price of gasoline, have found many more saying they’ve =
cut back. This poll doesn’t introduce a motivation; it simply asks =
people whether, in the weeks ahead, they’ll be driving more, less or =
about the same amount as they usually do. If less, they’re asked why.
There are age differences in driving intentions: Young people are =
particularly unlikely to say they’ll be driving less than they =
usually do; that rises with age, peaking at nearly three in 10 =
retirement-aged adults. Three-quarters of them blame the price of gas.
THE ROAD AHEAD =96 Behavior is hard to predict; while $4.38 a gallon is =
the average price at which Americans say they’ll significantly cut =
back on driving (and $4.00 the median), what ultimately happens =
remains to be seen, especially since driving less is no easy task for =
many people in today’s society.
Another variable, naturally, is the price of gas itself. After rising =
sharply last spring, it leveled off and then eased before heading up =
again.
Still, the average tipping point price seems fairly firm, since it’s =
not far from the figure Americans cited in an ABC/Post poll last July =
as the point at which they’d cut back =96 $4.16. (There are good =
reasons for that to have risen by five percent =96 inflation’s up 2.6 =
percent, weekly wages are up 3.4 percent, and it’s sensible that some =
people simply are adjusting to more expensive gasoline.)
There are differences in the tipping point, notably by region. While =
$4.38 is the average price at which drivers say they’d significantly =
cut back, that ranges from a low of $3.97 in the Midwest to a high of =
$5.12 in the West, a region know both for its wide-open spaces =96 and =
its especially high gas prices.
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone May =
17-21, 2007, among a random national sample of 1,007 adults. The =
results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection =
and tabulation by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, =
Pa.
Analysis by Gary Langer.
ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at http://abcnews.com/ =
pollvault.html.