Dems lose poll edge on Iraq; public doesn’t know what to do
ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: POLITICS AND THE WAR EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Monday, June 4, 2007
Democrats Lose Leadership Edge As Frustration with War Grinds On
The Democrats in Congress have lost much of the leadership edge they =
carried out of the 2006 midterm election, with lack of progress on =
Iraq the leading cause. Their only solace: George W. Bush and the =
Republicans aren’t doing any better.
Six weeks ago the Democrats held a 24-point lead over Bush as the =
stronger leadership force in Washington; today that’s collapsed to a =
dead heat. The Democrats’ overall job approval rating likewise has =
dropped, from a 54 percent majority to 44 percent now =96 with the =
decline occurring almost exclusively among strong opponents of the =
Iraq war.
The Democrats in Congress have lost much of the leadership edge they =
carried out of the 2006 midterm election, with lack of progress on =
Iraq the leading cause. Their only solace: George W. Bush and the =
Republicans aren’t doing any better. Six weeks ago the Democrats held =
a 24-point lead over Bush as the stronger leadership force in =
Washington; today that’s collapsed to a dead heat. The Democrats’ =
overall job approval rating likewise has dropped, from a 54 percent =
majority to 44 percent now =96 with the decline occurring almost =
exclusively among strong opponents of the Iraq war.
Yet the Democrats’ losses have not produced much in the way of gains =
for Bush or his party. The president’s approval rating remains a weak =
35 percent, unchanged from mid- April at two points from his career =
low in ABC News/Washington Post polls. The Republicans in Congress do =
about as badly, with just 36 percent approval.
% Approve
Now April
Democrats in Congress 44% 54%
Republicans in Congress 36 39
Bush 35 35
Another figure underscores the public=92s broad grumpiness: Seventy- =
three percent now say the country=92s off on the wrong track, the most in just over a =
decade.
SHIFT =96 The shift away from the Democrats in Congress has occurred on =
two levels. In terms of their overall approval rating, the damage is =
almost entirely among people who strongly oppose the war in Iraq: In =
this group 69 percent approved of the Democrats in April, but just 54 =
percent still approve now =96 a likely effect of the Democrats’ failure =
to push a withdrawal timetable through Congress.
Their decline in leadership ratings vs. Bush is more broadly based =96 =
that’s occurred among war opponents and supporters alike, apparently =
reflecting more an assessment of their performance than an expression =
of support or opposition.
IRAQ =96 More than anything, these views are fueled by the continued =
grind of the war in Iraq. Few think the Bush “surge” is working =96 64 =
percent see no significant progress restoring civil order there =96 =
and, looking ahead, 58 percent predict it will not succeed.
Sixty-one percent say the war was not worth fighting (down a scant =
five points from April’s record high) and majorities reject many of =
Bush’s arguments in support of the war =96 that it’s a critical =
component of the war on terrorism, that it has improved long-term =
U.S. security and that withdrawing poses more danger than remaining.
Perhaps most challenging is the president’s credibility gap: Sixty =
per cent of Americans feel they can’t trust the Bush administration =
to honestly and accurately report intelligence about security threats =
facing the United States. That makes any of Bush’s arguments a hard =
sell.
Indeed, the public still trusts the Democrats in Congress over Bush =
to handle the situation in Iraq, by 51-35 percent. But the Democrats’ =
number has slipped from 58 percent in April and a high of 60 percent =
in January.
CONCERNS =96 There are real concerns about what lies ahead for Iraq and =
the United States alike. If the United States withdraws without civil =
order first being restored, seven in 10 Americans see any of three =
possibilities as at least somewhat likely: Full-scale civil war, =
parts of Iraq becoming a base of operations for terrorists targeting =
the United States, and parts of Iraq falling under Iranian control.
Four in 10 see the first two outcomes as “very” likely, and a third =
say the same of the third. People who see any of these as very likely =
are much more apt than others to oppose any decrease in U.S. forces =
in Iraq.
If U.S. withdraws w/out civil order restored
Likely (Net) =93Very=94 likely
Full-scale Iraqi civil war 75% 41% Anti-U.S. terrorist bases 72 39 Iranian control of parts of Iraq 72 33
As noted, other arguments raised by Bush are less persuasive. Fewer =
than half believe the war has contributed to the long-term security =
of the United States =96 44 percent in this poll, a new low. Fewer, 37 =
percent, believe the United States must win in Iraq in order for the =
broader U.S. campaign against terrorism to succeed. And fewer still, =
23 percent, think withdrawing from Iraq will do more to increase the =
risk of a terrorist attack against the United States than remaining =
there.
Which will do more
to increase risk of terrorism?
Withdrawing from Iraq 23%
Remaining in Iraq 14
Same either way 62
WITHDRAW? =96 What to do is the open question. Fifty-five percent want =
U.S. forces decreased =96 it’s been about there for a year and a half =96 =
but just 15 percent support their immediate withdrawal. Nineteen =
percent would increase U.S. forces =96 as many as would pull them out =
immediately.
The combination of these two sentiments =96 deep unhappiness with the =
situation, and lack of consensus on what to do about it =96 is what’s =
driving broader discontent with Bush, with the Republicans in =
Washington, and now with the Democrats as well. TOLL =96 The toll of =
this discontent is unmistakable. Bush has not seen majority approval =
in any ABC/Post poll since January 2005; in presidential polling back =
to the late 1930s, only Harry Truman stayed so low for a longer =
period of time. And Americans are nearly three times as likely to =
“strongly” disapprove of Bush’s job performance (46 percent) as to =
strongly approve (17 percent).
It’s even longer =96 September 2004 =96 since a majority has said the war =
in Iraq was worth fighting. The two =96 views on the war, and Bush’s =
job approval rating =96 correlate very highly, at 0.9, where 0 is no =
correlation and 1 is complete congruence.
Overall just 31 percent approve of Bush’s handling of the war in =
Iraq. And the public’s negativity has overtaken Bush’s other ratings =
as well, most notably on his cornerstone issue =96 the one that got him =
re-elected =96 handling the U.S. campaign against terrorism. Just 44 =
percent now approve, matching his career low.
Indeed a narrow majority (now 52 percent) has disapproved of Bush’s =
handling of terrorism steadily since last October, and, since =
December, more have picked the Democrats than Bush in trust to handle =
it. As in other measures, though, slightly fewer now pick the =
Democrats (46 percent) than did earlier this year (52 percent in =
February). Separate damage for Bush has come on the subject of =
immigration: With his reform package on the table, his approval =
rating for handling immigration has plummeted among Republicans, from =
61 percent in April to 45 percent now. (See separate analysis at =
abcnews.com/pollvault.html).
GROUPS =96 As usual, partisan and ideological differences shoot through =
many of these results. Seventy-four percent of Republicans approve of =
Bush’s job performance overall, compared with 32 percent of =
independents and just one in 10 Democrats. (But just four in 10 =
Republicans “strongly” approve, vs. seven in 10 Democrats who =
strongly disapprove.) Similarly, two-thirds of Republicans approve of =
how Bush is handling the war in Iraq, and 70 percent say the war was =
worth fighting =96 views on which vastly fewer independents or =
Democrats agree. The division between Republicans and others on these =
measures underscores the challenge to Republican presidential =
candidates, who need to appeal to their base, which still supports =
Bush =96 yet also to be in a position to broaden that appeal, in a =
general election campaign, to those who don=92t.
Approve of Bush=92s Call the war
handling of the war =93worth fighting=94
All 31% 37%
Republicans 67 70
Independents 28 35
Democrats 8 14
METHODOLOGY =96 This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by =
telephone May 29-June 1, 2007, among a random national sample of =
1,205 adults, including an oversample of African-Americans for a =
total of 284 black respondents. The results have a three-point error =
margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
Analysis by Gary Langer.
ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at http://abcnews.com/ =
pollvault.html.