Americans & evolution
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=3D27847
June 11, 2007 Majority of Republicans Doubt Theory of Evolution More Americans accept theory of creationism than evolution
by Frank Newport GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ — The majority of Republicans in the United States do =
not believe the theory of evolution is true and do not believe that =
humans evolved over millions of years from less advanced forms of =
life. This suggests that when three Republican presidential =
candidates at a May debate stated they did not believe in evolution, =
they were generally in sync with the bulk of the rank-and-file =
Republicans whose nomination they are seeking to obtain.
Independents and Democrats are more likely than Republicans to =
believe in the theory of evolution. But even among non-Republicans =
there appears to be a significant minority who doubt that evolution =
adequately explains where humans came from.
The data from several recent Gallup studies suggest that Americans’ =
religious behavior is highly correlated with beliefs about evolution. =
Those who attend church frequently are much less likely to believe in =
evolution than are those who seldom or never attend. That Republicans =
tend to be frequent churchgoers helps explain their doubts about =
evolution.
The data indicate some seeming confusion on the part of Americans on =
this issue. About a quarter of Americans say they believe both in =
evolution’s explanation that humans evolved over millions of years =
and in the creationist explanation that humans were created as is =
about 10,000 years ago.
Broad Patterns of Belief in Evolution
The theory of evolution as an explanation for the origin and =
development of life has been controversial for centuries, and, in =
particular, since the 1859 publication of Charles Darwin’s famous The =
Origin of Species. Although many scientists accept evolution as the =
best theoretical explanation for diversity in forms of life on Earth, =
the issue of its validity has risen again as an important issue in =
the current 2008 presidential campaign. Two recent Republican debates =
have included questions to the candidates about evolution. Three =
candidates — Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Tom Tancredo — =
indicated in response to a question during the May 3 debate that they =
did not believe in the theory of evolution, although they have =
attempted to clarify their positions in the weeks since.
Several recent Gallup Polls conducted in May and June indicate that a =
significant number of Americans have doubts about the theory of =
evolution.
One such question was included in a May Gallup Panel survey:
Now thinking about how human beings came to exist on Earth, do you, =
personally, believe in evolution, or not?
Yes, believe in evolution 49%
No, do not 48
No opinion 2
It is important to note that this question included a specific =
reference to “thinking about how human beings came to exist on =
Earth . . .” that oriented the respondents toward an explicit =
consideration of the implication of evolution for man’s origin. =
Results may have been different without this introductory phrase.
With that said, Americans’ responses to this question are essentially =
split down the middle. About half say they do believe in evolution =
and about half say they do not.
A second question included in a June 1-3 USA Today/Gallup poll asked =
about evolution side by side with a similar question about creationism:
Next, we’d like to ask about your views on two different explanations =
for the origin and development of life on earth. Do you think — =
[ITEMS ROTATED] — is — [ROTATED: definitely true, probably true, =
probably false, (or) definitely false]?
A. Evolution, that is, the idea that human beings developed over =
millions of years from less advanced forms of life
Definite- ly true 18%
Probably true 35
Probably false 16
Definite- ly false 2
No opinion 3
Total true 53
Total false 44
B. Creationism, that is, the idea that God created human beings =
pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 =
years
Definite- ly true 39
Probably true 27
Probably false 16
Definite- ly false 15
No opinion 3
Total true 66
Total false 31
These results are similar to those from the question asked in May. A =
little more than half of Americans say evolution — as defined in =
this question wording — is definitely or probably true. Forty-four =
percent say that it is probably or definitely false.
In contrast, even more Americans, two-thirds, say the theory of =
creationism is definitely or probably true.
A separate Gallup Poll trend question — also asked in May — gave =
Americans three choices about human beings’ origins. Responses to =
this question found that 43% of Americans choose the alternative =
closest to the creationist perspective, that “God created human =
beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last =
10,000 years or so.” A substantial 38% say human beings evolved, but =
with God guiding the process. Another 14% favored an interpretation =
of evolution arguing that God had no part in the process, leaving a =
total of 52% who say humans evolved with or without God’s direction.
Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the =
origin and development of human beings — [ROTATE 1-3/3-1: 1) Human =
beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms =
of life, but God guided this process, 2) Human beings have developed =
over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had =
no part in this process, 3) God created human beings pretty much in =
their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so]?
Man developed, with God guiding 38%
Man developed, but God had no part in process 14
God created man in present form 43
Other/ No opinion 4
To summarize the results of these three questions about evolution and =
human origins:
Across the three question wordings, the data show consistently that =
about half of Americans agree with the theory of evolution, believe =
that the theory of evolution is probably or definitely true, or =
believe that humans developed over million of years with or without =
God’s guidance.
Belief in the idea that humans were created pretty much as is 10,000 =
years ago is somewhat more dependent on the way in which this concept =
is measured. A little more than 4 out of 10 Americans — when =
presented with three alternatives — say they believe that God =
created humans in their present form 10,000 years ago. At the same =
time, two-thirds of Americans in a stand-alone question say they =
believe in the theory of “creationism” — defined as the idea that =
humans were created in their present form 10,000 years ago.
It might seem contradictory to believe that humans were created in =
their present form at one time within the past 10,000 years and at =
the same time believe that humans developed over millions of years =
from less advanced forms of life. But, based on an analysis of the =
two side-by-side questions asked this month about evolution and =
creationism, it appears that a substantial number of Americans hold =
these conflicting views.
These results show that:
24% of Americans believe that both the theory of evolution and the =
theory of creationism are probably or definitely true
41% believe that creationism is true, and that evolution is false
28% believe that evolution is true, but that creationism is false
3% either believe that both are false or have no opinion about at =
least one of the theories
Without further research, it’s not possible to determine the exact =
thinking process of those who agreed that both the theory of =
evolution and creationism are true. It may be, however, that some =
respondents were seeking a way to express their views that evolution =
may have been initiated by or guided by God, and told the interviewer =
that they agreed with both evolution and creationism in an effort to =
express this more complex attitude.
Importance of Religion
It is important to remember that all three questions in this analysis =
included wording that explicitly focused the respondents on the =
origin of human beings.
This wording may have made Americans think about the implications of =
the theory of evolution in terms of humans being special creatures as =
reflected in religious teachings and in particular in the Judeo- =
Christian story of human origins as related in the book of Genesis. =
USA Today recently quoted Christian conservative and former =
presidential candidate Gary Bauer as saying: “Most of us don’t think =
that we’re just apes with trousers.”
Thus, it is not surprising to find that many of those who do not =
believe in the theory of evolution justify that belief with =
explicitly religious explanations:
(Asked of those who do not believe in evolution) What is the most =
important reason why you would say you do not believe in evolution? =
[OPEN-ENDED]
I believe in Jesus Christ 19 I believe in the almighty God, creator of Heaven and Earth 16 Due to my religion and faith 16 Not enough scientific evidence to prove otherwise 14 I believe in what I read in the Bible 12 I’m a Christian 9 I don’t believe humans come from beasts/monkeys 3 Other 5 No reason in particular 2 No opinion 3
The majority of these responses are clearly religious in nature. It =
is fascinating to note that some Americans simply justified their =
objection to evolution by statements of general faith and belief. =
Although the New Testament does not include many explicit references =
to the origin of humans in the words of Jesus, 19% of Americans state =
that they do not believe in evolution because they believe in Jesus =
Christ. Other religious justifications focus on statements of belief =
in God, general faith concerns, references to the Bible, and the =
statement that “I’m a Christian.” A relatively small number of this =
group justify their disbelief of evolution by saying more =
specifically that they do not believe that there is enough scientific =
evidence to prove the theory and/or that they simply do not believe =
that humans come from beasts or monkeys.
The graph shows the relationship between church attendance and =
response to the straightforward question of belief in evolution.
The group of Americans who attend church weekly — about 40% in this =
sample — are strongly likely to reject the theory of evolution. The =
group of Americans who attend church seldom or never — also about =
40% — have the mirror image opinion and are strongly likely to =
accept the theory of evolution.
Republicans Most Likely to Reject Evolution
As noted previously, belief in evolution has been injected into the =
political debate already this year, with much attention given to the =
fact three Republican presidential candidates answered a debate =
question by saying that they did not believe in evolution.
It appears that these candidates are, in some ways, “preaching to the =
choir” in terms of addressing their own party’s constituents — the =
group that matters when it comes to the GOP primaries. Republicans =
are much more likely to be religious and attend church than =
independents or Democrats in general. Therefore, it comes as no great =
surprise to find that Republicans are also significantly more likely =
not to believe in evolution than are independents and Democrats.
Bottom Line
The data in this analysis were measured in the context of questions =
about the origin and development of human beings. It is apparent that =
many Americans simply do not like the idea that humans evolved from =
lower forms of life. This appears to be substantially based on a =
belief in the story of creation as outlined in the Bible — that God =
created humans in a process that, taking the Bible literally, =
occurred about 10,000 years ago.
Americans who say they do not believe in the theory of evolution are =
highly likely to justify this belief by reference to religion, Jesus =
Christ, or the Bible. Furthermore, there is a strong correlation =
between high levels of personal religiosity and doubts about evolution.
Being religious in America today is strongly related to partisanship, =
with more religious Americans in general much more likely to be =
Republicans than to be independents or Democrats. This relationship =
helps explain the finding that Republicans are significantly more =
likely than independents or Democrats to say they do not believe in =
evolution. When three Republican presidential candidates said in a =
May debate that they did not believe in evolution, the current =
analysis suggests that many Republicans across the country no doubt =
agreed.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly =
selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, =
conducted June 1-3, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can =
say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to =
sampling and other random effects is =B13 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 203 Catholics, the maximum margin =
of sampling error is =B18 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 804 non-Catholics, the maximum =
margin of sampling error is =B14 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical =
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into =
the findings of public opinion polls.