who’ll believe Petraeus?
http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=3575558&page=1
Most Are Skeptical of Petraeus Report
ABC News/Washington Post Poll: Few Think Bush Will Change Course on
Iraq War
ANALYSIS by GARY LANGER Sept. 9, 2007
A skeptical public expects little of this week’s developments on
Iraq: More than half of Americans think the Petraeus report will try
to sugar-coat the real situation there, and two-thirds don’t believe
it will influence George W. Bush’s war policy anyway.
Fifty-three percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll think Gen.
David Petraeus’ progress report on the “surge” of U.S. troops will
try to make things look better than they really are; fewer, 39
percent, expect it to honestly reflect the situation in Iraq.
But in the public’s eyes, it’s not likely to matter in any case: Just
28 percent think Bush — long seen as inflexible on the war — will
use the report to adjust his Iraq policy. Sixty-six percent think
he’ll stick with his war policy no matter what the Petraeus report says.
That policy remains broadly unpopular. Fewer than three in 10 think
the surge has improved the situation in Iraq; 60 percent say the
United States is not making significant progress toward the ultimate
goal of restoring civil order there; and in a bottom-line measure,
given its costs vs. benefits, 62 percent say the war in Iraq was not
worth fighting. A majority has held that view steadily for more than
two and a half years. Americans, by nearly 2-1, disapprove of Bush’s
handling of the situation in Iraq, 65 percent to 34 percent — around
where it’s been for most of the last year and a half. His broader job
approval rating is almost identical: Just 33 percent approve of his
work in office overall, matching his career low. He hasn’t seen
majority approval in an ABC/Post poll since January 2005.
Bush’s approval rating among political independents — the center of
American politics — is at a career low, 25 percent. He’s also at 25
percent approval among people who describe themselves as ideological
moderates, matching his low in that group.
There are a few better results for the administration. Forty-three
percent think the surge will improve security over the next few
months, up nine points from July. (Nonetheless, 54 percent think it
won’t improve security.) And while 43 percent think the United States
will lose the war in Iraq, that’s down from 51 percent in April.
(Thirty-nine percent think the United States will win the war.)
The problems are not all about Bush’s policy. Americans by a broad
margin, 65-34 percent, also say they’re not confident in the Iraqi
government’s ability to meet its commitments in the effort to restore
civil order there. The lack of political consensus in Baghdad has
been one of the administration’s own complaints.
Withdraw?
Given these concerns, 58 percent of Americans favor a decrease in the
deployment of U.S. troops in Iraq (a new high, albeit by an
insignificant two points over its July level); nearly all of them say
a drawdown should start this year. Moreover, 55 percent (the same as
in July) favor legislation that would set a deadline for withdrawing
U.S. combat forces from Iraq by next spring.
There’s little public acceptance of two of the chief arguments
against withdrawal — that leaving Iraq in its current state would
make the United States more vulnerable, and indeed that victory in
Iraq is necessary for victory in the broader U.S. war on terrorism.
Just 22 percent of Americans say withdrawing from Iraq would increase
the risk of terrorism occurring in the United States. Half as many
say the opposite — that remaining in Iraq increases the risk –
while most by far, 65 percent, think the risk of an attack is about
the same either way.
Further, while 37 percent believe the United States must win the war
in Iraq in order for the broader war on terrorism to be a success,
more, 54 percent, think the war on terror can succeed without victory
in Iraq. (In another result, a minority, 44 percent, think the war in
Iraq has contributed to long-term U.S. security; 52 percent think it
has not.)
Most of these results have been quite stable over recent time,
suggesting that U.S. public opinion on the war is in a settled state.
That makes it hard to move, barring significant developments on the
ground.
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