Iraqis: surge ain’t working, things really suck
[details available at original - most want the U.S. out, but they’re
not happy with their neighbor Iran either]
http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=3571504
Iraqis’ Own Surge Assessment: Few See Security Gains
ABC News/BBC/NHK National Survey of Iraq Finds Worsening Public
Attitudes
ANALYSIS By GARY LANGER Sept. 10, 2007 —
Barely a quarter of Iraqis say their security has improved in the
past six months, a negative assessment of the surge in U.S. forces
that reflects worsening public attitudes across a range of measures,
even as authorities report some progress curtailing violence.
Apart from a few scattered gains, a new national survey by ABC News,
the BBC and the Japanese broadcaster NHK finds deepening
dissatisfaction with conditions in Iraq, lower ratings for the
national government and growing rejection of the U.S. role there.
More Iraqis say security in their local area has gotten worse in the
last six months than say it’s gotten better, 31 percent to 24
percent, with the rest reporting no change. Far more, six in 10, say
security in the country overall has worsened since the surge began,
while just one in 10 sees improvement.
More directly assessing the surge itself — a measure that
necessarily includes views of the United States, which are highly
negative — 65 to 70 percent of Iraqis say it’s worsened rather than
improved security, political stability and the pace of redevelopment
alike.
There are some improvements, but they’re sparse and inconsistent.
Thirty-eight percent in Anbar province, a focal point of the surge,
now rate local security positively; none did so six months ago. In
Baghdad fewer now describe themselves as feeling completely unsafe in
their own neighborhoods — 58 percent, down from 84 percent. Yet
other assessments of security in these locales have not improved, nor
has the view nationally.
Overall, 41 percent report security as their greatest personal
problem, down seven points from 48 percent in March. But there’s been
essentially no change in the number who call it the nation’s top
problem (56 percent, with an additional 28 percent citing political
or military issues). And there are other problems aplenty to sour the
public’s outlook — lack of jobs, poor power and fuel supply, poor
medical services and many more.
Big Picture
The big picture remains bleak. Six in 10 Iraqis say their own lives
are going badly, and even more, 78 percent, say things are going
badly for the country overall — up 13 points from last winter.
Expectations have crumbled; just 23 percent see improvement for Iraq
in the year ahead, down from 40 percent last winter and 69 percent in
November 2005.
More than six in 10 now call the U.S.-led invasion of their country
wrong, up from 52 percent last winter. Fifty-seven percent call
violence against U.S. forces acceptable, up six points. And despite
the uncertainties of what might follow, 47 percent now favor the
immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq — a 12-point rise.
In a better result for the United States, fewer now blame U.S. or
coalition forces directly for the violence occurring in Iraq — 19
percent, down from 31 percent six months ago; as many (21 percent)
blame al Qaeda. (Eight percent blame George W. Bush personally.)
If the United States is unpopular, others fare no better. Seventy-
nine percent of Iraqis believe Iran is actively engaged in
encouraging sectarian violence in Iraq, up eight points; majorities
also suspect Saudi Arabia and Syria of fomenting violence. And the
poll finds almost unanimous opposition to most activities of al Qaeda
in Iraq; the sole exception is its attacks on U.S. and other
coalition forces.
Assessment
This survey, based on face-to-face interviews of 2,212 randomly
selected Iraqis across the country Aug. 17-24, follows a similar poll
in Iraq by ABC, the BBC and other partners last Feb. 25-March 5.
Together the two surveys bracket the surge, providing an independent
assessment of changes in local conditions and attitudes.
The Bush administration, with input from the U.S. military and its
commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, reports this week on its own
assessment of conditions in Iraq and the effect of the surge of
approximately 30,000 additional U.S. troops there.
Iraqis’ own views can differ from military evaluations of the surge
for good reason. Public attitudes are not based on a narrow
accounting of more or fewer bombings and murders, but on the bigger
picture — which for most in Iraq means continued violence, poor
services, economic deprivation, inadequate reconstruction, political
gridlock and other complaints. For instance, the reported drop in
Baghdad from 896 violent deaths in July to 656 in August may simply
have been insufficient to boost morale — particularly when violent
deaths nationally were up by 20 percent, largely on the basis of
bombings that killed an estimated 500 in two villages near the Syrian
border on Aug. 14.
Indeed just a quarter of Iraqis in this poll say they feel “very
safe” in their own neighborhoods, unchanged from six months ago. (And
none reports feeling “very safe” in Baghdad or Anbar province.)
Reports of car bombings and suicide attacks are more widespread; 42
percent now say these have happened nearby, up 10 points.
With both continued violence and no improvements in living
conditions, frustration with Iraq’s own government has grown as well.
Despite billions spent, only 23 percent of Iraqis report effective
reconstruction efforts in their local area. And about two-thirds
disapprove of the work of both the current government overall (up by
12 points since winter), and of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki
personally.
The ABC/BBC/NHK poll, consisting of interviews that averaged nearly a
half-hour in length, covered a wide range of attitudes and
perceptions — personal experiences, views of the nation’s prospects,
ratings of security and the surge, politics and reconstruction, the
performance of the United States, the level of local violence, ethnic
cleansing and more.
Personal Prospects
In perhaps the most bottom-line measure of a country’s well-being, 61
percent of Iraqis say their lives are going badly, unchanged from
last winter and double what it was in late 2005. Among Sunni Arabs,
the country’s elites under Saddam Hussein, this soars to 88 percent,
while among Kurds in the semi-autonomous north it’s jumped from one-
third to half in the last six months alone.
The change over the long term is striking: In November 2005, 71
percent of Iraqis said their own lives were going well, compared with
39 percent in the last two polls.
The future looks equally bleak: Only 29 percent of Iraqis expect
their own lives to get better in the next year, down six points from
last winter, including a 17-point drop among Kurds. And just a third
of Iraqis now think their children will have a better life than they
do, down nine points from six months ago. Hopes for the next
generation have fallen by 11 points among Shiites — and by 24 points
among increasingly negative Kurds.
Iraq’s Condition
In terms of the country more broadly, in November 2005 a bare
majority of Iraqis, 52 percent, said things were going badly. That
rose to 65 percent last March, and 78 percent in this poll. The
latest change includes a huge 40-point jump in negativity among
Kurds, who enjoy far better living conditions in their northern
provinces, but seem to have grown more alarmed about the situation to
the south.
Expectations that the country will be in better shape a year off, at
just 23 percent, are a third of their November 2005 level. Positive
expectations have fallen by 23 points among Shiites and by 34 points
among Kurds; they remain rock-bottom among Sunni Arabs.
Surge and Security
Overall assessments of security show no improvement since last
winter, and direct ratings of the surge are highly negative. In one
measure, the number of Iraqis who rate their local security
positively (43 percent) is no better than it was in March. In
another, as noted, just 24 percent say local security has improved in
the last six months, including 16 percent in Baghdad, and not one
respondent in Anbar.
Even fewer, 11 percent nationally, think security has improved in the
country as a whole.
The widespread nature of the violence is part of this. In Baghdad, 52
percent report car bombings or suicide attacks in their local area,
the same as in March; but so do 39 percent in the country, up from 26
percent six months ago. Accounts of other forms of violence — such
as snipers or crossfire, kidnappings for ransom and sectarian or
factional fighting — also remain widespread, though their prevalence
has not increased.
Across the country overall, feelings of personal safety are no better
than in March; just 26 percent of Iraqis feel “very safe” in their
own neighborhood. And that’s almost nonexistent across Iraq’s major
metro areas — Baghdad, Basra, Kirkuk and Mosul — where 98 percent
of residents feel either “not very safe” (50 percent) or “not safe at
all” (48 percent). Ratings of personal safety are better, though
hardly good, in Iraq’s smaller cities, villages and rural areas.
Direct ratings of the surge itself are particularly negative. At
best, only 18 percent of Iraqis say it has improved security in surge
areas; at worst, just six percent say it’s improved the pace of
economic development. Indeed, as noted, the surge broadly is seen to
have done more harm than good, with 65 to 70 percent saying it’s
worsened rather than improved security in surge areas, security in
other areas, conditions for political dialogue, the ability of the
Iraqi government to do its work, the pace of reconstruction and the
pace of economic development.
Every respondent in Baghdad, and also in Anbar (where George W. Bush
paid a surprise visit to a sprawling U.S. base last week), says the
surge has made security worse now than it was six months ago (anti-
U.S. sentiment in these areas is very high, and likely a factor in
these direct assessments). Views in the rest of the country are
hardly positive: Outside Baghdad and Anbar, still just 26 percent say
the surge has improved security.
A broader question, not specifically linked to the surge, has an
equally negative result: Just 18 percent of Iraqis say the presence
of U.S. forces is making security better in their country overall,
about the same as in March (21 percent). Instead 72 percent say the
U.S. presence is making Iraq’s security worse.
While fewer in Baghdad now feel “not safe at all,” it’s hard to tell
if that reflects better conditions, or more people accommodating
themselves to existing conditions — the “new normal.” Indeed,
another result finds a 20-point drop in the number in Baghdad who
rate local security positively.
In Anbar, as noted, 38 percent now rate local security positively –
none did in March. But there’s been no improvement in the number who
feel entirely unsafe (44 percent, compared with 38 percent in March).
There’s one further, disquieting result on security: Asked which
group is in command of security in their village or neighborhood, 16
percent of Iraqis — up 11 points since March — reply that no one
commands security in their area. Across Iraq’s major metropolitan
areas, that rises to 30 percent. In Baghdad alone, it’s 36 percent.
This may be less a direct assessment of local command than an
expression of frustration with ongoing lawlessness.
More Baghdad and Anbar
There’s particular interest in conditions in the focal points of the
surge. In his visit to Anbar last week, Bush declared, “normal life
is returning.” Yet most Anbar residents seem not to see it that way.
Forty-six percent in Anbar say lack of security is the biggest
problem in their own lives, as many as say so elsewhere (it’s 41
percent nationally). Seventy-four percent expect their children’s
lives to be worse than their own — nearly double the national
figure. On the plus side, as noted, 38 percent rate local security
positively, while none did in March; and half as many now call it
“very bad,” 32 percent. But still 62 percent in Anbar rate local
security negatively overall. And reports of factional fighting there
are up.
Further, there have been increases in the most negative ratings
(”very bad”) on a variety of other issues in Anbar — including the
availability of jobs (now rated as very bad by 62 percent, nearly
double the March figure), local schools, the supply of clean water
and the availability of household goods, among others. Sixty-three
percent say their freedom of movement is very bad; 73 percent say
that about the availability of fuel.
Baghdad has its own continued problems. There have been 13- and 14-
point drops in the number of Baghdad residents who report snipers or
crossfire and kidnappings for ransom nearby; but still 43 and 44
percent, respectively, report these as occurring in their own areas.
Sixty-eight percent call local security “very bad” — actually up
from March. One reason may be that even apart from sectarian
violence, sharply more give a “very bad” rating to their family’s
protection from crime — 66 percent, up from 44 percent in March.
Again, as these are attitudinal measures, the drivers can be less
crime protection — or simply less patience among a wearied and
dispirited population.
Reconstruction and Politics
Nor, in the eyes of Iraqis, have reconstruction efforts or political
leadership improved. As noted, only 23 percent of Iraqis report
effective reconstruction efforts in their local area — down by 10
points in the past six months. It’s down by 25 points among Kurds,
another of many signs of increasingly negative views in that once-
positive group.
In terms of national politics, 65 percent disapprove of the way the
Iraqi government has carried out its responsibilities, while just 35
percent approve. Disapproval of the Shiite-dominated government is up
by 15 points, to 47 percent, among Shiites themselves; and up by 24
points among Kurds. It remains nearly unanimously negative among
Sunni Arabs.
Similarly, disapproval of Maliki’s performance as prime minister is
up by nine points, to 66 percent. His approval rating, 33 percent
overall (very similar to George W. Bush’s), has fallen by 10 points
since winter, including by 13 points among Shiites and by 27 points
among Kurds.
Glimmers?
In one slim glimmer of political improvement, half of Iraqis now say
members of parliament are “willing to make necessary compromises” for
peace; that’s up by nine points from 41 percent last winter. But
while most Shiites and Kurds say so (66 and 55 percent,
respectively,) far fewer Sunni Arabs — 24 percent — agree. (The day
before interviews began, Maliki and Iraq’s Kurdish president
announced a new alliance of moderate Shiites and Kurds; Sunni
moderates, however, refused to join.)
There are a few other whispers of possible gains. There’s been a
scant five-point drop in the number of Iraqis who report unnecessary
violence against citizens by the Iraqi army occurring in their local
area; notably that includes a 26-point decline among Sunni Arabs (but
a 10-point rise among Shiites, albeit just to 17 percent). There have
been five- and six-point gains in the level of confidence in the
Iraqi army and police, to sizable majorities of 67 and 69 percent,
respectively. (This confidence still is vastly lower, albeit somewhat
improved, among Sunni Arabs.) And there’s been a 12-point drop, to
just 24 percent, in confidence in local militias, including a 19-
point decline among Shiites.
Another hopeful sign — and a remarkable one given its troubles — is
the continued preference for Iraq to remain a single, unified state
with a central government in Baghdad. Sixty-two percent favor that
outcome, about the same as in March (albeit down from 79 percent in
February 2004).
Support for a single, centrally governed state has risen among
Shiites, but fallen among Kurds, who’ve moved more toward favoring
separation of the country into independent states. Separation now
gets 49 percent support among Kurds, up 19 points; an additional 42
percent of Kurds favor the Swiss-like solution of a group of regional
states with a federal government in Baghdad. A single state retains
most support among Sunni Arabs.
The War and U.S. Forces
Other assessments of the United States are overwhelmingly negative.
As noted, nearly two-thirds of Iraqis now say it was wrong for the
United States and its allies to have invaded Iraq — 63 percent, up
from 52 percent six months ago and from 39 percent in the first Iraq
poll by ABC, the BBC and NHK (and the German broadcaster ARD) in
February 2004.
Even among Shiites, empowered by the overthrow of Saddam, 51 percent
now say the invasion was wrong, up sharply from 29 percent in March.
(Further deterioration may be ahead; among Shiites who still support
the invasion, the number who call it “absolutely” right has fallen
from 34 percent in March to 14 percent now.) Only among the largely
autonomous Kurds does a majority still support the invasion, and even
their support, 71 percent, is down by 12 points.
Seventy-nine percent of Iraqis oppose the presence of coalition
forces in the country, essentially unchanged from last winter –
including more than eight in 10 Shiites and nearly all Sunni Arabs.
(Seven in 10 Kurds, by contrast, still support the presence of these
forces.)
Similarly, 80 percent of Iraqis disapprove of the way U.S. and other
coalition forces have performed in Iraq; the only change has been an
increase in negative ratings of the U.S. performance among Kurds. And
86 percent of Iraqis express little or no confidence in U.S. and U.K.
forces, similar to last winter and again up among Kurds.
Accusations of mistreatment continue: Forty-one percent of Iraqis in
this poll (vs. 44 percent in March) report unnecessary violence
against Iraqi citizens by U.S. or coalition forces. That peaks at 63
percent among Sunni Arabs, and 66 percent in Sunni-dominated Anbar.
This disapproval rises to an endorsement of violence: Fifty-seven
percent of Iraqis now call attacks on coalition forces “acceptable,”
up six points from last winter and more than three times its level
(17 percent) in February 2004. Since March, acceptability of such
attacks has risen by 15 points among Shiites (from 35 percent to 50
percent), while remaining near-unanimous among Sunnis (93 percent).
Kurds, by contrast — protected by the United States when Saddam
remained in power — continue almost unanimously to call these
attacks unacceptable.
Acceptability of attacks on U.S. forces also varies by locale,
peaking at 100 percent in Anbar, 69 percent in Kirkuk city and 60
percent in Baghdad, compared with 38 percent in Basra and just three
percent in the northern Kurdish provinces.
Withdrawal
Given such hostile views, 47 percent now say the United States and
other coalition forces should leave Iraq immediately — a view that’s
risen equally among Sunni Arabs (72 percent now say the U.S. should
leave immediately, up 17 points) and Shiites (44 percent, up 16
points). Kurds almost unanimously disagree; just eight percent favor
an immediate withdrawal.
The number of Iraqis favoring an immediate U.S. withdrawal has risen
from 26 percent in November 2005 and 35 percent last winter; at 47
percent it’s now a plurality for the first time (in the next most-
popular option, 34 percent say U.S. forces should “remain until
security is restored”). The fact that support for an immediate
pullout of U.S. forces is not even higher, given the vast
unpopularity of their presence, likely reflects the uncertainty of
what might follow their departure.
Indeed, apart from Kurds, support for immediate withdrawal is lowest,
and has risen the least, in Baghdad, whose mixed Shiite-Sunni status
puts it at particular risk. Desire for the United States to “leave
now” is highest in Anbar, still deeply anti-American despite any
accommodation its leaders have made with the U.S. military.
The rise in support for U.S. withdrawal is linked to worsening views
of the country’s condition. People who think things are going badly
for Iraq are far more likely to favor immediate withdrawal — 56
percent vs. 16 percent. Similarly, people who are pessimistic about
the country’s future also are far more likely to favor withdrawal –
53 percent, vs. 23 percent among optimists. With optimism down,
support for withdrawal is up.
Clearly there are concerns — varying sharply by population group –
about the implications if the U.S. does withdraw without first
restoring civil order. Nearly half of Iraqis, 46 percent, foresee
Shiite-dominated Iran taking control of parts of Iraq. As many
foresee parts of Iraq becoming bases of operation for international
terrorists. Fewer, just over a third, think U.S. withdrawal would
lead to full-scale civil war in Iraq, but with big differences: Two
in 10 Shiites foresee full-scale civil war, but that rises to four in
10 Sunni Arabs and six in 10 Kurds. Paradoxically, Sunni Arabs — who
dislike the United States most intensely and are most apt to favor
its immediate withdrawal — also are most apt to foresee a takeover
of parts of Iraq by Shiite-dominated Iran if the United States does
pull out. This apparent lack of palatable alternatives underscores
Sunni Arabs’ quandary, leaving them, in particular, so discontented
with conditions in Iraq today.
Al Qaeda in Iraq
While U.S. efforts are viewed resoundingly negatively, this does not
translate into support for activities of al Qaeda in Iraq.
Disturbingly, nearly half of Iraqis (predominantly Sunni Arabs) say
it’s acceptable for al Qaeda in Iraq to attack U.S. and coalition
forces. But Iraqis — Sunni and Shiite alike — almost unanimously
reject other activities of al Qaeda in Iraq — attacking Iraqi
civilians (100 percent call this unacceptable), attempting to gain
control of some areas (98 percent) and recruiting foreign fighters to
come to Iraq (97 percent).
Other Local Conditions
Overall, of 13 local conditions tested in this poll, just one is
reported to have improved — ratings of local schools, eight points
better to 51 percent positive. All the rest are stable or slightly
worse, and all are rated poorly, ranging from views of local security
(rated negatively by 57 percent) to the supply of electricity and
fuel (both 92 percent negative). All are devastatingly bad in
Baghdad, where in most cases every single respondent rated local
conditions negatively, as was the case in March.
Segregation and Violence
Segregation of Iraqis — both forced and voluntary — continues to
occur. Across the country, one in six Iraqis — 17 percent — report
the separation of Sunni and Shiite Arabs on sectarian lines,
including 11 percent who describe this as mainly forced. In Baghdad,
it soars: Forty-three percent report the separation of Sunnis and
Shiites from mixed to segregated areas, and 27 percent say it’s
mainly forced — similar to the 31 percent who said so in March.
Ethnic cleansing clearly is not isolated in Baghdad. The forced
separation of Iraqis along sectarian lines is reported by 39 percent
in Basra city, in the mainly Shiite south; and by 24 percent — one
in four — across all major metropolitan areas.
In a continued sign of hope, this separation is enormously unpopular:
Ninety-eight percent, with agreement across ethnic and sectarian
lines, oppose it.
Related results underscore the difficulty of life in Iraq: Seventy-
seven percent rate their freedom to live where they want without
persecution negatively; 74 percent rate their freedom of safe
movement negatively. Both are essentially unchanged from March.
Ethnic cleansing is far from the only violence being visited upon
Iraqis. As noted, 42 percent report car bombs and suicide attacks
nearby; that includes 26 percent — one in four — who say these have
occurred in the past six months.
Forty-one percent report unnecessary violence against Iraqi citizens
by U.S. or coalition forces (26 percent say this has occurred in the
last six months). Four in 10 also report kidnappings for ransom in
their areas; notably that soars to 82 percent in Kirkuk and 68
percent in Basra, vs. 44 percent in Baghdad.
Other forms of violence are also troublingly high: Thirty-four
percent of Iraqis report fighting between government and insurgent
forces in their local area (two in 10 in the last six months), 30
percent report snipers or crossfire; as many report unnecessary
violence by local militias, 27 percent report sectarian fighting and
two in 10 report unnecessary violence by the Iraqi army or police.
The number of Iraqis who believe Iran is encouraging sectarian
violence in Iraq, 79 percent, is up by eight points since March,
chiefly because a majority of Shiites now share this view (62
percent, up 15 points). There’s also been a nine-point rise, to 65
percent, in the number who believe mainly Sunni Saudi Arabia is
encouraging violence. (Just 28 percent of Sunni Arabs hold this view,
but that’s up by 17 points, and it’s risen among Kurds as well.) As
many, 66 percent, also suspect Syria of encouraging violence.
Sunni/Shiite
A final point is a key one in Iraq’s political equation: the makeup
of the country by ethnic and religious groups. Iraq commonly is
described as a majority Shiite nation, apparently on the basis of an
undated and unsourced reference in the CIA’s “World Factbook”
proposing that 60 to 65 percent of Iraqis are Shiites.
In this survey, instead, Shiite Arabs comprise just under half of the
population, 48 percent, as they did in the March poll, 47 percent.
Sunni Arabs account for 33 percent in this poll, again very similar
(and within sampling tolerances) to their 35 percent in the March
poll. Kurds accounted for 16 and 15 percent, respectively, in the two
surveys; with three percent “other” in both. Together these two
surveys consist of more than 4,400 interviews from 915 sampling
points, a large combined sample with an unusual level of geographical
coverage.
Methodology
This poll for ABC News, the BBC and NHK was conducted Aug. 17-24,
2007, through in-person interviews with a random national sample of
2,212 Iraqi adults, including oversamples in Anbar province, Basra
city, Kirkuk and the Sadr City section of Baghdad. The results have a
2.5-point error margin. Field work by D3 Systems of Vienna, Va., and
KA Research Ltd. of Istanbul.