Doug Henwood Talks

September 22, 2006 Most Americans Say Democrats Lack Clear Plan on Iraq Even though public says Democrats would better handle the issue than
Republicans

by Jeffrey M. Jones GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ — By almost any polling measure, Iraq is the top issue
in this year’s midterm elections. Given the close association between
Iraq and the Republican administration, Democrats have the potential
to capitalize on public dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq. But
Gallup polling shows their ability to do so is far from certain.
While Americans disapprove of Bush’s handling of the war and believe
that the Democrats in Congress would better handle the issue than
Republicans, only one in four believe the Democrats have a clear plan
on Iraq — fewer than those who say this about the Bush
administration. Also, Americans are about equally likely to say they
would vote for a candidate who supports President Bush on Iraq as to
vote for a candidate who opposes Bush.

Throughout the year, most polling has shown widespread
dissatisfaction with the Bush administration’s handling of the war in
Iraq. In a Gallup Poll conducted in August of 2006, only 36% approved
with George W. Bush’s handling of the Iraq issue, and 61% were
disapproving. These numbers are very typical of his ratings this year.

Not surprisingly, Americans have said throughout the year that the
Democrats in Congress would do a better job handling the Iraq issue
than the Republicans in Congress. When Gallup last asked this in late
June of this year, the Democrats had a 47% to 37% advantage.

That perception is probably due more to an indictment of Republican
performance than an endorsement of an alternative approach by the
Democrats. Just 25% of Americans say the Democrats in Congress have a
clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq. That percentage has
been remarkably stable throughout the year. By comparison, 36% of
American say George W. Bush has a clear plan — still low, but
significantly better than the Democrats.

Combining the results of these questions shows the plurality of
Americans, 43%, think neither Bush nor the Democrats have a clear
plan on Iraq. Eleven percent of Americans think both sides have a
clear plan. Of concern to the Democrats is the fact that only 14% say
the Democrats have a clear plan but Bush does not, while a greater
percentage (23%) says Bush has a clear plan but the Democrats do not.

Americans are divided as to whether they are more likely to vote for
a candidate who supports (33%) or opposes (36%) Bush on Iraq; 29% say
it makes no difference to them. This sentiment is closely related to
respondents’ vote intentions — the vast majority who prefer a
candidate who supports Bush on Iraq say they will vote for the
Republican candidate in their district, and most who say they prefer
a candidate who opposes Bush plan to vote Democratic. The Democrats
have only a slight advantage among those who say the candidate’s
position on Iraq doesn’t matter to them.

One change Americans might welcome is greater congressional
involvement in Iraq policy. Fifty-six percent of Americans say
Congress is not doing enough to oversee U.S. policy in this area,
while 22% say it is doing the right amount, and 14% say it is doing
too much.

It is unclear if the results would be the same if Democrats took
control of Congress from Republicans after the midterm elections.
What is clear is that Democrats strongly believe Congress should be
more involved, perhaps due to their more general opposition to Bush
and the Iraq war. Seventy-two percent of Democrats think Congress is
not doing enough to develop Iraq policy. Republicans, on the other
hand, are more divided in their views — 38% say Congress is doing
the right amount in this regard, 35% say it is not doing enough.

As Election Day draws near, one clear challenge for Democrats will be
to capitalize on public dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq. It may
not be sufficient to assume that unease with Republicans’ handling
the issue is enough to convince voters to elect Democrats in their
place. Without a clear plan to demonstrate how they would do things
differently, or, more importantly, the perception that they have a
plan, Democrats remain vulnerable to the criticism that they would be
no better, or perhaps worse, than Republicans on Iraq. This is
especially the case given that Republicans are generally seen as
better at handling foreign policy issues than Democrats.

One element of that plan which would likely appeal to Americans is a
call for greater congressional involvement in Iraq policy, especially
given Bush’s low marks for handling the war. Democrats would also
likely need to reinforce the perception that Bush lacks a clear plan
on Iraq, and to convince people they should be electing members of
Congress who would not support Bush on Iraq.

Developing a plan for Iraq that resonates with large numbers of
voters is a difficult task. Recent Gallup data show that there is no
public consensus on a plan for withdrawing troops from Iraq. Also,
Americans are divided as to whether sending U.S. troops to Iraq in
the first place was a mistake.

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