Pew: the centrists done it
http://pewresearch.org/obdeck/?ObDeckID=88
Centrists Deliver for Democrats
In an election that proved to be a referendum on Bush and Iraq,
political independents cast the deciding votes
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press November 8, 2006
The political center forcefully asserted itself in Tuesday’s
midterms. The national exit poll showed that political independents,
who divided their votes evenly between George Bush and John Kerry in
2004, swung decisively in favor of the Democrats. With roughly nine-
in-ten Republicans and Democrats casting ballots for representatives
of their parties, just as they did two years ago, the Democrats’
57%-39% advantage among independents proved crucial.
As expected, the election turned out in large measure to be a
referendum on President Bush and the war in Iraq — bad news for
Republicans. About six-in-ten voters (59%) said they were either
dissatisfied (30%) or angry (29%) with the president. By more than
two-to-one, those dissatisfied with Bush supported the Democratic
candidate in their district (69%-29%); among those angry with the
president the margin was more than fifteen-to-one (92%-6%).
Bush was much more of a drag on his party’s candidates than was
former President Clinton in 1994, the year that Republicans won
control of Congress. More than a third (36%) of the electorate said
they voted to oppose Bush; that compares with 27% who voted to oppose
Clinton in 1994, and 21% in 1998, the year Congress impeached the
president.
Voters rated a number of issues as extremely important. Roughly four-
in-ten (41%) cited corruption and ethics as extremely important — a
reflection of the many scandals that ensnared Republicans this year.
Yet there seems little doubt that the war weighed heavily on voters
as they cast their midterm ballots. The majority of voters who
disapproved of the war overwhelmingly favored Democrats (by 80%-18%).
War supporters backed the Republican in their district by virtually
the same margin, but they were much smaller in number; just 42%
approved of the war compared with 56% who disapproved.
The national exit polls also showed shifts among several key voter
groups, and revealed that two issues on which Republicans campaigned
– terrorism and illegal immigration — provided modest support for
the GOP:
President Bush’s surprisingly strong showing among Hispanic voters
was washed away in the strong Democratic tide. In 2004, Bush drew 44%
of the Hispanic vote, according to the national exit poll. But in the
midterm, Hispanic and Latino voters favored the Democrats by 69%-29%.
A gender gap was again evident in this year’s election, but it was
smaller than in either 1994 or 1998. In contrast to those two
elections, majorities of both women and men cast ballots for the same
party on Tuesday — in this case the Democrats (56% women/51% men).
Roughly four-in-ten voters (39%) cited terrorism as extremely
important to their vote, about the same number who mentioned
corruption (41%) and the economy (39%). Republicans led among
terrorism voters, but by a fairly narrow margin (53%-46%). The GOP’s
margin among voters focused on illegal immigration was similarly
modest (52%-46%).
Terrorism had long been a Republican strength, but the exit polls
suggest that the war in Iraq has undermined the GOP’s advantage. By
59%-35%, voters said that the war in Iraq did not improve U.S.
security. Consequently, on the key question of which party would make
the country safer from terrorism, just 29% said that only Republicans
would make the U.S. safer from terrorism, while 22% said only the
Democrats (22%).